The Validity of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa

Table 13

The deviation between the actual and forecasted values of the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in North Africa for the period between 17/9/2020–16/10/2020.

Date	Expected cases	Actual cases	Gap	Date	Expected cases	Actual cases	Gap
17/9/20	3588	4213	625	2/10/2020	3749	4648	899
18/9/20	3504	3746	242	3/10/2020	3783	4514	731
19/9/20	3571	4226	655	4/10/2020	3783	4303	520
20/9/20	3533	4582	1049	5/10/2020	3815	2283	−1532
21/9/20	3600	3095	−505	6/10/2020	3818	3842	24
22/9/20	3570	3183	−387	7/10/2020	3847	6387	2540
23/9/20	3629	4574	945	8/10/2020	3851	6326	2475
24/9/20	3607	4048	441	9/10/2020	3879	4776	897
25/9/20	3659	4467	808	10/10/2020	3887	8391	4504
26/9/20	3643	3530	−113	11/10/2020	3911	5150	1239
27/9/20	3690	4963	1273	12/10/2020	3920	2857	−1063
28/9/20	3678	2535	−1143	13/10/2020	3944	4562	618
29/9/20	3720	4474	754	14/10/2020	3953	6776	2823
30/9/20	3714	4276	562	15/10/2020	3976	4483	507
1/10/2020	3752	3360	−392	16/10/2020	3987	5017	1030

Source: own computation, 2021.