The Validity of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa

Table 14

The deviation between the actual and forecasted values of the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Southern Africa for the period between 17/9/2020–16/10/2020.

Date	Expected cases	Actual cases	Gap	Date	Expected cases	Actual cases	Gap
17/9/20	1601	2382	781	2/10/2020	1557	1918	361
18/9/20	2063	2271	208	3/10/2020	1640	1984	344
19/9/20	2109	2144	35	4/10/2020	1414	1669	255
20/9/20	1857	1698	−159	5/10/2020	1047	964	−83
21/9/20	1346	887	−459	6/10/2020	810	1065	255
22/9/20	1026	1452	426	7/10/2020	865	2057	1192
23/9/20	1037	2081	1044	8/10/2020	1157	1884	727
24/9/20	1381	2371	990	9/10/2020	1451	1535	84
25/9/20	1732	1603	−129	10/10/2020	1522	2622	1100
26/9/20	1831	1072	−759	11/10/2020	1319	1634	315
27/9/20	1573	1395	−178	12/10/2020	996	1251	255
28/9/20	1157	1270	113	13/10/2020	795	1219	424
29/9/20	872	943	71	14/10/2020	857	1976	1119
30/9/20	917	1931	1014	15/10/2020	1125	2221	1096
01/10/20	1230	1915	685	16/10/2020	1389	3472	2083

Source: own computation, 2021.