The Validity of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa

Table 2

ARIMA model for forecasting the number of daily confirmed cases according to AIC.

Region	ARIMA (p, d, q)	AIC	BIC	Remark
Africa	ARIMA (3, 1, 3)	3639.944	3666.872
	ARIMA (3, 1, 4)	3595.321	3625.615	Selected
	ARIMA (3, 1, 5)	3595.333	3625.626
	ARIMA (4, 1, 1)	3672.747	3696.309
	ARIMA (4, 1, 3)	3619.915	3650.209
East Africa	ARIMA (1, 1, 1)	2601.405	2614.308
	ARIMA (3, 1, 1)	2598.818	2618.173
	ARIMA (3, 1, 2)	2599.356	2621.936
	ARIMA (3, 1, 3)	2585.117	2610.923	Selected
	ARIMA (3, 1, 4)	2586.625	2615.657
West Africa	ARIMA (3, 1, 3)	3023.064	3049.991
	ARIMA (2, 1, 1)	3022.722	3039.552
	ARIMA (2, 1, 2)	3021.737	3041.933
	ARIMA (2, 1, 3)	3020.539	3044.1	Selected
	ARIMA (1, 1, 3)	3021.737	3041.933
Central Africa	ARIMA (3, 1, 1)	2965.526	2985.721
	ARIMA (3, 1, 2)	2967.526	2991.087
	ARIMA (3, 1, 3)	2964.29	2991.218
	ARIMA (3, 1, 4)	2963.011	2989.939
	ARIMA (2, 1, 3)	2962.982	2986.544	Selected
North Africa	ARIMA (4, 1, 1)	3195.541	3219.103
	ARIMA (4, 1, 2)	3195.762	3222.69
	ARIMA (2, 1, 4)	3199.014	3225.942
	ARIMA (3, 1, 4)	3196.937	3227.23
	ARIMA (1, 1, 4)	3193.648	3217.21	Selected
Southern Africa	ARIMA (3, 1, 3)	3482.738	3509.666
	ARIMA (4, 1, 3)	3485.755	3516.049
	ARIMA (3, 1, 4)	3490.28	3520.574
	ARIMA (4, 1, 4)	3448.189	3481.849
	ARIMA (4, 1, 5)	3446.152	3483.178	Selected

Source: own computation, 2021.