The Validity of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa

Table 9

The deviation between the actual and forecasted values of the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Africa for the period between 17/9/2020–16/10/2020.

Date	Expected cases	Actual cases	Gap	Date	Expected cases	Actual cases	Gap
17/9/20	7256	8603	1347	2/10/2020	5800	8853	3053
18/9/20	7382	8167	785	3/10/2020	5804	8828	3024
19/9/20	7127	8727	1600	4/10/2020	5478	8089	2611
20/9/20	648	8420	7772	5/10/2020	5070	4709	-361
21/9/20	5779	6146	367	6/10/2020	4884	6601	1717
22/9/20	5382	6839	1457	7/10/2020	5051	10546	5495
23/9/20	5460	8726	3266	8/10/2020	5438	10904	5466
24/9/20	5838	8186	2348	9/10/2020	5758	8563	2805
25/9/20	6142	7978	1836	10/10/2020	5783	13531	7748
26/9/20	6082	6412	330	11/10/2020	5513	8978	3465
27/9/20	5658	8368	2710	12/10/2020	5167	5886	719
28/9/20	5151	5667	516	13/10/2020	5015	7834	2819
29/9/20	4901	7508	2607	14/10/2020	5173	11509	6336
30/9/20	5057	8433	3376	15/10/2020	5526	9115	3589
1/10/2020	5465	7265	1800	16/10/2020	5819	10682	4863

Source: own computation, 2021.