The Impacts of Reducing the Infection Rate and Infection Source on the Transmission of Emerging Infectious Diseases

<div>Diagnosis rate <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.58131pt" id="M35" style="vertical-align:-0.2324905pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 36.449 8.58131" width="36.449pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M213 67C239 136 257 225 255 300C253 353 242 447 164 447C112 447 54 389 41 319L67 309C90 362 117 377 134 377C184 377 189 277 190 239C193 153 164 43 146 -12H176C278 73 450 253 450 390C450 439 410 463 396 463C384 463 380 459 382 449C385 440 389 415 389 402C389 284 312 146 216 67H213Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.534,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.797,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.037,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.001,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> start time of taking measures <span class="nowrap"><svg height="11.5303pt" id="M36" style="vertical-align:-3.18148pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 36.8806 11.5303" width="36.8806pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,4.368,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.946,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,24.209,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.449,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> and measures intensity <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.55521pt" id="M37" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 40.8203 8.55521" width="40.8203pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M766 88L752 113C719 83 690 64 681 64C674 64 672 74 679 103L724 292C758 436 724 448 701 448C680 448 666 442 639 429C594 407 514 350 441 252H439L447 289C476 423 450 448 419 448C398 448 379 441 355 427C307 400 234 344 162 249H160L180 324C203 409 197 448 170 448C144 448 82 413 23 349L35 321C57 343 96 374 108 374C115 374 117 371 111 341C87 227 57 112 24 -6L32 -12C53 -4 81 4 108 6C119 68 134 128 149 171C177 229 309 383 364 383C387 383 388 355 373 282C354 190 330 92 303 -6L309 -12C332 -4 356 3 386 6C396 63 411 122 424 171C458 236 590 383 642 383C658 383 664 369 652 315L603 91C587 20 593 -12 619 -12C642 -12 708 23 766 88Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,13.889,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.152,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.392,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,34.356,0)"><path d="M249 635C141 635 70 555 70 471C70 401 114 353 179 316C143 294 106 267 90 252C68 231 45 202 45 157C45 50 130 -12 237 -12C322 -12 435 52 435 169C435 256 372 304 303 343C349 374 375 398 383 407C401 429 411 458 411 487C411 569 344 635 249 635ZM238 603C285 603 337 567 337 482C337 422 310 385 276 358C205 393 145 426 145 500C145 552 179 603 238 603ZM248 20C183 20 125 70 125 163C125 218 158 268 206 300C284 261 355 217 355 143C355 66 308 20 248 20Z"></path></g></svg>.</span> The evolution of (a) epidemic size, (b) the number of deaths, (c) the current number of infections <span class="nowrap"><svg height="11.5564pt" id="M38" style="vertical-align:-2.26807pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 39.1457 11.5564" width="39.1457pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M405 650H141L135 622C222 616 230 610 215 535L133 116C118 41 113 33 29 28L23 0H289L295 28C209 33 205 40 219 116L298 535C312 609 317 616 399 622L405 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.971,0)"><path d="M535 230V280H323V490H265V280H52V230H265V-3H323V230H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.507,0)"><path d="M828 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transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M593 650H142L136 622C219 616 224 611 209 531L130 120C114 39 108 34 23 28L17 0H501C518 32 557 130 568 158L540 169C519 132 495 93 469 70C439 43 409 35 332 35C272 35 241 37 225 50C211 61 211 89 222 149L253 320H350C441 320 443 312 441 239H471L510 434H481C455 366 448 358 360 358H260L303 572C311 613 312 615 348 615H431C509 615 522 603 532 581C544 555 546 531 545 491L574 493C583 555 592 631 593 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.412,0)"><path d="M535 230V280H323V490H265V280H52V230H265V-3H323V230H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.948,0)"><path d="M405 650H141L135 622C222 616 230 610 215 535L133 116C118 41 113 33 29 28L23 0H289L295 28C209 33 205 40 219 116L298 535C312 609 317 616 399 622L405 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.515,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg> over time.</div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

fig2

Figure 2

Figure 2: The Impacts of Reducing the Infection Rate and Infection Source on the Transmission of Emerging Infectious Diseases 