The Impacts of Reducing the Infection Rate and Infection Source on the Transmission of Emerging Infectious Diseases

<div>Diagnosis rate <span class="nowrap"><svg height="9.92533pt" id="M65" style="vertical-align:-1.57651pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 57.1051 9.92533" width="57.1051pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M213 67C239 136 257 225 255 300C253 353 242 447 164 447C112 447 54 389 41 319L67 309C90 362 117 377 134 377C184 377 189 277 190 239C193 153 164 43 146 -12H176C278 73 450 253 450 390C450 439 410 463 396 463C384 463 380 459 382 449C385 440 389 415 389 402C389 284 312 146 216 67H213Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.534,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.797,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.037,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.001,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,36.241,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,41.384,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,47.624,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,50.588,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> respectively. When measures are taken at different times, the epidemic final size and death number vary with the measures intensity. (a) Epidemic final size when <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.58131pt" id="M66" style="vertical-align:-0.2324905pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 36.449 8.58131" width="36.449pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M213 67C239 136 257 225 255 300C253 353 242 447 164 447C112 447 54 389 41 319L67 309C90 362 117 377 134 377C184 377 189 277 190 239C193 153 164 43 146 -12H176C278 73 450 253 450 390C450 439 410 463 396 463C384 463 380 459 382 449C385 440 389 415 389 402C389 284 312 146 216 67H213Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.534,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.797,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.037,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.001,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g></svg>;</span> (b) epidemic final size when <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.58131pt" id="M67" style="vertical-align:-0.2324905pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 36.449 8.58131" width="36.449pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M213 67C239 136 257 225 255 300C253 353 242 447 164 447C112 447 54 389 41 319L67 309C90 362 117 377 134 377C184 377 189 277 190 239C193 153 164 43 146 -12H176C278 73 450 253 450 390C450 439 410 463 396 463C384 463 380 459 382 449C385 440 389 415 389 402C389 284 312 146 216 67H213Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.534,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.797,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.037,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.001,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z"></path></g></svg>;</span> (c) death number when <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.58131pt" id="M68" style="vertical-align:-0.2324905pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 36.449 8.58131" width="36.449pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M213 67C239 136 257 225 255 300C253 353 242 447 164 447C112 447 54 389 41 319L67 309C90 362 117 377 134 377C184 377 189 277 190 239C193 153 164 43 146 -12H176C278 73 450 253 450 390C450 439 410 463 396 463C384 463 380 459 382 449C385 440 389 415 389 402C389 284 312 146 216 67H213Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.534,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.797,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.037,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.001,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g></svg>;</span> (d) death number when <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.58131pt" id="M69" style="vertical-align:-0.2324905pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 36.449 8.58131" width="36.449pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M213 67C239 136 257 225 255 300C253 353 242 447 164 447C112 447 54 389 41 319L67 309C90 362 117 377 134 377C184 377 189 277 190 239C193 153 164 43 146 -12H176C278 73 450 253 450 390C450 439 410 463 396 463C384 463 380 459 382 449C385 440 389 415 389 402C389 284 312 146 216 67H213Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.534,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.797,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.037,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.001,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

fig5

Figure 5

Figure 5: The Impacts of Reducing the Infection Rate and Infection Source on the Transmission of Emerging Infectious Diseases 