Driving Factors and Peak Forecasting of Carbon Emissions from Public Buildings Based on LMDI-SD

Table 2

Decomposition results of carbon emission factors of public buildings from 2010 to 2019 (100 million tons).

Driving factor	2010–2011	2011–2012	2012–2013	2013–2014	2014–2015	2015–2016	2016–2017	2017–2018	2018–2019	Total
Carbon emission coefficient	−0.02	0.22	−0.14	−0.37	−0.20	0.03	−0.14	−0.19	−0.12	−0.93
Energy intensity	0.12	0.04	−0.02	−0.36	−0.13	−0.47	−0.24	−0.24	−0.03	−1.31
Industrial structure	−0.01	0.01	0.03	0.06	0.12	0.09	0.10	0.09	0.09	0.58
Economic density	0.15	−0.05	-0.02	0.07	−0.39	0.36	0.18	−0.06	−0.19	0.06
Area per capita	0.12	0.32	0.31	0.23	0.63	−0.11	0.10	0.37	0.47	2.46
Urbanization rate	0.21	0.16	0.17	0.16	0.20	0.19	0.17	0.16	0.16	1.58
Population scale	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.08	0.36
Cumulative contribution value	0.61	0.73	0.37	-0.18	0.28	0.14	0.22	0.17	0.47	2.79