Development of Production-Forecasting Model Based on the Characteristics of Production Decline Analysis Using the Reservoir and Hydraulic Fracture Parameters in Montney Shale Gas Reservoir, Canada

<table class="table-group" id="tab3"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Response variable</td><td class="align_center">Symbol</td><td class="align_center">Range (Ave.)</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Initial peak rate, MMscf/day</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 20.9251ptpx;"><svg height="14.1649pt" id="M57" style="vertical-align:-5.529pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 20.9251 14.1649" width="20.9251pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M600 480C600 590 528 650 384 650H143L137 622C222 614 225 607 210 531L130 127C113 41 106 36 23 28L17 0H294L300 28C204 36 195 42 212 127L243 284L314 263C327 263 339 263 352 264C465 271 600 337 600 480ZM508 481C508 351 402 304 329 304C289 304 265 311 250 317L295 559C302 594 310 606 323 611C335 616 350 619 367 619C455 619 508 573 508 481Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.656,3.132)"><path d="M513 0V26C455 31 447 37 447 103V278C447 398 390 449 309 449C255 449 202 412 166 376V712C127 700 67 684 19 677V653C85 647 87 643 87 580V103C87 37 79 31 19 26L18 0H231V26C171 32 166 39 166 103V341C194 373 232 392 270 392C337 392 368 351 368 269V103C368 38 360 32 302 26V0H513Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.305,3.132)"><path d="M478 437H297V411C355 404 361 392 349 355C329 292 285 174 257 106L167 356C153 394 158 404 205 411L204 437H2V411C57 404 66 391 88 336C117 265 162 144 202 30C208 13 209 0 204 -15C199 -28 191 -49 173 -84C149 -128 130 -153 98 -172C81 -184 73 -193 73 -209C73 -233 101 -257 129 -257C143 -257 156 -252 161 -232C175 -179 197 -122 264 38C333 203 364 286 390 339C417 395 425 403 478 411V437Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.482,3.132)"><path d="M169 380V459C122 440 66 423 24 416V392C86 384 90 382 90 317V-135C90 -201 81 -207 17 -213V-240H253V-213C176 -207 169 -201 169 -125V6C182 -1 208 -11 238 -12C368 12 487 109 487 260C487 358 421 449 310 449C298 449 279 444 261 433L169 380ZM169 346C196 367 237 389 269 389C341 389 403 329 403 221C403 109 347 37 263 37C228 37 191 53 169 76V346Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">0.41~16.25 (3.59)</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Hyperbolic decline rate, /month</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 24.1742ptpx;"><svg height="14.1649pt" id="M58" style="vertical-align:-5.529pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 24.1742 14.1649" width="24.1742pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M743 375C743 570 607 650 407 650H136L130 622C214 612 220 606 204 526L125 122C110 43 105 36 24 27L17 0H250C382 0 482 23 571 76C680 141 743 248 743 375ZM644 379C644 188 520 36 305 36C277 36 249 38 229 46C205 55 202 71 212 126L293 553C300 588 306 600 317 606C330 613 356 617 390 617C547 617 644 537 644 379Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,9.893,3.132)"><path d="M513 0V26C455 31 447 37 447 103V278C447 398 390 449 309 449C255 449 202 412 166 376V712C127 700 67 684 19 677V653C85 647 87 643 87 580V103C87 37 79 31 19 26L18 0H231V26C171 32 166 39 166 103V341C194 373 232 392 270 392C337 392 368 351 368 269V103C368 38 360 32 302 26V0H513Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,14.542,3.132)"><path d="M478 437H297V411C355 404 361 392 349 355C329 292 285 174 257 106L167 356C153 394 158 404 205 411L204 437H2V411C57 404 66 391 88 336C117 265 162 144 202 30C208 13 209 0 204 -15C199 -28 191 -49 173 -84C149 -128 130 -153 98 -172C81 -184 73 -193 73 -209C73 -233 101 -257 129 -257C143 -257 156 -252 161 -232C175 -179 197 -122 264 38C333 203 364 286 390 339C417 395 425 403 478 411V437Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,18.719,3.132)"><path d="M169 380V459C122 440 66 423 24 416V392C86 384 90 382 90 317V-135C90 -201 81 -207 17 -213V-240H253V-213C176 -207 169 -201 169 -125V6C182 -1 208 -11 238 -12C368 12 487 109 487 260C487 358 421 449 310 449C298 449 279 444 261 433L169 380ZM169 346C196 367 237 389 269 389C341 389 403 329 403 221C403 109 347 37 263 37C228 37 191 53 169 76V346Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">0.02~1.00 (0.35)</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Hyperbolic decline exponent</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 19.2548ptpx;"><svg height="14.8173pt" id="M59" style="vertical-align:-5.52897pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 19.2548 14.8173" width="19.2548pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M452 333C452 398 425 448 375 448C329 448 235 404 140 292H138L229 683C233 701 234 712 225 712C208 712 149 686 66 677L64 652H97C135 652 140 651 129 598L38 167C23 96 29 57 44 33C60 7 98 -12 132 -12C169 -12 232 3 290 41C383 102 452 223 452 333ZM365 316C365 199 308 87 239 49C221 39 200 35 183 35C137 35 99 70 112 163C116 191 123 215 129 233C190 316 290 392 330 392C348 392 365 372 365 316Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,4.992,3.132)"><path d="M513 0V26C455 31 447 37 447 103V278C447 398 390 449 309 449C255 449 202 412 166 376V712C127 700 67 684 19 677V653C85 647 87 643 87 580V103C87 37 79 31 19 26L18 0H231V26C171 32 166 39 166 103V341C194 373 232 392 270 392C337 392 368 351 368 269V103C368 38 360 32 302 26V0H513Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,9.641,3.132)"><path d="M478 437H297V411C355 404 361 392 349 355C329 292 285 174 257 106L167 356C153 394 158 404 205 411L204 437H2V411C57 404 66 391 88 336C117 265 162 144 202 30C208 13 209 0 204 -15C199 -28 191 -49 173 -84C149 -128 130 -153 98 -172C81 -184 73 -193 73 -209C73 -233 101 -257 129 -257C143 -257 156 -252 161 -232C175 -179 197 -122 264 38C333 203 364 286 390 339C417 395 425 403 478 411V437Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,13.818,3.132)"><path d="M169 380V459C122 440 66 423 24 416V392C86 384 90 382 90 317V-135C90 -201 81 -207 17 -213V-240H253V-213C176 -207 169 -201 169 -125V6C182 -1 208 -11 238 -12C368 12 487 109 487 260C487 358 421 449 310 449C298 449 279 444 261 433L169 380ZM169 346C196 367 237 389 269 389C341 389 403 329 403 221C403 109 347 37 263 37C228 37 191 53 169 76V346Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">0.68~6.86 (2.01)</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Transition time, month</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 43.387ptpx;"><svg height="12.235pt" id="M60" style="vertical-align:-3.27288pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.96212 43.387 12.235" width="43.387pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M620 675H597C578 656 570 650 541 650H144C112 650 104 653 94 675H72C59 618 42 552 23 493L53 491C71 534 88 564 105 585C124 608 144 615 238 615H290L197 121C182 40 174 34 88 28L82 0H361L367 28C275 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349 133 371 145 385C156 397 171 404 190 404C241 404 275 364 275 291V274C253 256 180 229 120 209C65 190 39 159 39 110C39 47 88 -12 159 -12C189 -12 237 25 277 52C282 35 288 21 301 8C312 -3 333 -12 348 -12L433 39ZM275 84C256 65 221 48 195 48C164 48 124 73 124 124C124 161 146 180 185 198C206 208 254 229 275 240V84Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,17.286,3.132)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,22.19,3.132)"><path d="M319 325C317 349 306 409 297 431C277 440 250 449 209 449C117 449 57 389 57 319C57 243 122 209 182 182C232 159 261 135 261 91C261 48 227 21 190 21C130 21 85 79 68 145L41 140C41 104 51 36 58 22C75 7 121 -12 172 -12C252 -12 337 35 337 126C337 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transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,33.119,3.132)"><path d="M257 449C165 449 37 374 37 209C37 98 119 -12 256 -12C355 -12 473 65 473 226C473 349 381 449 257 449ZM244 416C333 416 380 320 380 204C380 67 329 21 267 21C184 21 130 115 130 241C130 354 184 416 244 416Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,37.651,3.132)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">38~194 (95)</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Exponential decline rate, /month</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 23.7723ptpx;"><svg height="13.9365pt" id="M61" style="vertical-align:-5.3006pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 23.7723 13.9365" width="23.7723pt" 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<div>Five decline parameters of the modified hyperbolic decline.</div>

Geofluids

tab3

Table 3

Table 3: Development of Production-Forecasting Model Based on the Characteristics of Production Decline Analysis Using the Reservoir and Hydraulic Fracture Parameters in Montney Shale Gas Reservoir, Canada 

Table 3 | Development of Production-Forecasting Model Based on the Characteristics of Production Decline Analysis Using the Reservoir and Hydraulic Fracture Parameters in Montney Shale Gas Reservoir, Canada 