Prediction Model and Risk Quantification of Natural Gas Peak Production in Central Sichuan Paleo-Uplift Gas Reservoirs

<table class="table-group" id="tab2"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="7"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left" colspan="2"><span style="width: 25.9101ptpx;"><svg height="8.75747pt" id="M106" style="vertical-align:-0.2324905pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.52498 25.9101 8.75747" width="25.9101pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M716 650H478V622C549 617 570 605 575 566C579 535 582 493 582 401V326C582 161 537 40 393 40C269 40 205 133 205 294V521C205 611 213 617 291 622V650H33V622C111 615 120 611 120 521V272C120 154 148 80 208 34C252 0 309 -14 368 -14C434 -14 501 7 548 55C605 116 623 201 623 319V401C623 493 626 536 629 563C633 605 656 618 716 622V650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.568,0)"><path d="M631 18C609 24 585 35 559 65C534 91 514 117 478 169C448 214 406 281 389 313C462 346 516 399 516 485C516 545 490 590 449 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viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 41.8445 13.8595" width="41.8445pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.738,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,17.025,-5.741)"><path d="M253 635C142 635 71 555 71 471C71 401 113 353 178 316C144 294 106 267 91 252C70 231 46 202 46 157C46 51 132 -12 241 -12C328 -12 442 52 442 168C442 257 379 305 311 343C354 373 380 398 388 407C406 428 417 458 417 487C417 568 348 635 253 635ZM240 600C288 600 340 563 340 481C340 423 313 387 279 360C207 394 148 427 148 499C148 549 182 600 240 600ZM252 23C188 23 129 73 129 163C129 217 162 266 211 298C289 260 360 217 360 144C360 69 312 23 252 23Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.971,0)"><path d="M766 88L752 113C719 83 690 64 681 64C674 64 672 74 679 103L724 292C758 436 724 448 701 448C680 448 666 442 639 429C594 407 514 350 441 252H439L447 289C476 423 450 448 419 448C398 448 379 441 355 427C307 400 234 344 162 249H160L180 324C203 409 197 448 170 448C144 448 82 413 23 349L35 321C57 343 96 374 108 374C115 374 117 371 111 341C87 227 57 112 24 -6L32 -12C53 -4 81 4 108 6C119 68 134 128 149 171C177 229 309 383 364 383C387 383 388 355 373 282C354 190 330 92 303 -6L309 -12C332 -4 356 3 386 6C396 63 411 122 424 171C458 236 590 383 642 383C658 383 664 369 652 315L603 91C587 20 593 -12 619 -12C642 -12 708 23 766 88Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,32.228,-5.741)"><path d="M290 377C321 398 342 415 358 430C378 450 389 473 389 502C389 578 329 635 238 635H237C184 635 137 610 109 578L64 515L88 493C112 529 154 573 208 573S303 542 303 482C303 409 233 370 141 341L149 308C165 313 190 319 215 319C272 319 341 283 341 193C342 98 292 43 222 43C163 43 122 72 96 94C88 101 79 100 70 94C61 87 47 73 46 60C44 47 48 37 62 23C76 10 118 -12 165 -12C238 -12 430 62 430 223C430 297 379 359 290 375V377Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,37.175,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">2000</td><td class="align_center">3875</td><td class="align_center">5750</td><td class="align_center">7625</td><td class="align_center">9555</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="7"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left" rowspan="2">Correlation coefficient</td><td class="align_center">Hubbert model</td><td class="align_center">0.9891</td><td class="align_center">0.9793</td><td class="align_center">0.9815</td><td class="align_center">0.9813</td><td class="align_center">0.9848</td></tr><tr><td class="align_center">Gauss model</td><td class="align_center">0.9894</td><td class="align_center">0.9875</td><td class="align_center">0.9952</td><td class="align_center">0.9871</td><td class="align_center">0.9913</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="7"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>Correlation analysis of yield prediction results.</div>

Geofluids

tab2

Table 2

Table 2: Prediction Model and Risk Quantification of Natural Gas Peak Production in Central Sichuan Paleo-Uplift Gas Reservoirs 