Incidence and Complications of Atrial Fibrillation in a Low Socioeconomic and High Disability United States (US) Population: A Combined Statistical and Machine Learning Approach

Table 5

Performance assessment for prediction models of high-risk atrial fibrillation and associated adverse clinical outcomes (stroke, heart failure, myocardial infarction, major bleeding, and cognitive impairment).

Part a—assessment in terms of discriminant validity (i.e., c index or area under the curve)
Outcome	C index
	Training				Validation
	Estimate		95% lower limit	95% upper limit	Estimate	95% lower limit	95% upper limit
AF outcome with condition presence and a minimum of $5000 of total annual care cost in the year prior to index date	0.910		0.891	0.929	0.910	0.883	0.937
Stroke	0.825		0.809	0.841	0.820	0.797	0.843
Heart failure	0.891		0.885	0.897	0.888	0.879	0.897
Myocardial infarction	0.857		0.835	0.879	0.860	0.829	0.891
Major bleeding	0.716		0.678	0.754	0.714	0.661	0.767
Cognitive impairment	0.870		0.837	0.875	0.874	0.824	0.878
Part b—assessment in terms of the effectiveness of % targeted members (i.e., cumulative lift)
Member targeted (%)		Validation —Cumulative lift
		AF outcome with condition presence and a minimum of $5000 of total annual care cost in the year prior to index date		Stroke		Heart failure		Myocardial infarction		Major bleeding		Cognitive impairment
		Cumulative lift (multiplier)	Cumulative lift (proportion of % of member targeted)	Cumulative lift (multiplier)	Cumulative lift (proportion of % of member targeted)	Cumulative lift (multiplier)	Cumulative lift (proportion of % of member targeted)	Cumulative lift (multiplier)	Cumulative lift (proportion of % of member targeted)	Cumulative lift (multiplier)	Cumulative lift (proportion of % of member targeted	Cumulative lift (multiplier)	Cumulative lift (proportion of % of member targeted)
5		11.12	55.62	7.39	36.95	10.25	51.26	9.01	45.04	4.07	20.37	10.06	50.30
10		7.00	70.02	4.95	49.46	6.39	63.94	5.91	59.10	3.16	31.61	6.28	62.78
15		6.22	93.35	3.86	57.87	4.81	72.14	4.49	67.38	2.66	39.84	4.69	70.29
20		4.22	84.38	3.24	64.70	3.89	77.80	3.67	73.46	2.35	46.92	3.83	76.62
25		3.55	88.80	2.82	70.45	3.29	82.25	3.13	78.18	2.13	53.15	3.24	81.08
30		3.06	91.71	2.51	75.15	2.86	85.65	2.76	82.74	1.95	58.41	2.82	84.57