Impact of Weather Covariates on Wildfire in Tanjung Puting National Park

Table 2

Root-mean-square (RMS) errors in estimates of total daily burn area. “Null" model refers to a stationary Poisson model, where the expected burn area is constant. The second column shows the RMS of the residuals for each of the models, fitted and assessed using data from January 2001 to January 2007. The third column shows the RMS of the errors when each of the models is fitted using only data from January 2001 to December 2004, and then subsequently used to forecast burn area from January 2005 to January 2007.

Model	RMS error, Jan. 2001–Jan. 2007	RMS error, Jan. 2005–Jan. 2007
Null	38.20	59.53
(1)	31.36	48.19
(2)	34.87	55.40
(3)	35.45	55.59