Forecasting Tennis Match Results Using the Bradley-Terry Model

Table 7

Measures of predictive performance for fitted model.

	Fitted model
	All surfaces	Hard court	Clay court
Classification accuracy	66.49%	67.89%	73.27%
Average probability	0.5871	0.6134	0.6499
Average log probability	-0.5993	-0.5744	-0.5142
Return on investment	-8.60%	8.20%	19.80%	(Avg. odds)
	8.81%	21.82%	22.77%	(Max. odds)