Research Article
Mid-Epidemic Forecasts of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths: A Bivariate Model Applied to the UK
Table 2
Fit to training data (WAIC criterion).
| | | Poisson-gamma | Poisson-lognormal | Poisson-log-Student |
| | M = 80 | | Cases | 605.0 | 600.0 | 564.1 | | Deaths | 365.7 | 367.4 | 350.4 | | Total | 970.7 | 967.4 | 914.5 |
| | M = 100 | | Cases | 851.6 | 845.8 | 808.8 | | Deaths | 562.0 | 560.1 | 550.1 | | Total | 1413.6 | 1405.9 | 1358.9 |
| | M = 120 | | Cases | 1097.0 | 1086.3 | 1042.3 | | Deaths | 743.3 | 741.4 | 731.5 | | Total | 1840.4 | 1827.7 | 1773.8 |
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