Contagious Criminal Career Models Showing Backward Bifurcations: Implications for Crime Control Policies

<div>(a) The long-term behavior of <svg height="16.0921pt" id="M414" style="vertical-align:-3.8339pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -12.2582 32.7628 16.0921" width="32.7628pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M238 0V26C174 32 166 38 166 104V712C132 700 70 683 18 677V653C81 647 87 645 87 577V104C87 38 78 32 15 26V0H238Z" id="g121-106"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,3.289,0)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z" id="g121-108"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.618,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z" id="g113-224"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,20.172,-5.741)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z" id="g50-117"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,23.412,-5.741)"><path d="M509 90L493 118C465 91 427 70 418 70S409 77 415 103L469 327C494 429 466 451 436 451C412 451 387 444 356 427C307 400 222 342 160 264H158L246 667C253 701 252 710 243 710C228 710 169 680 87 673L83 644H117C155 644 160 640 149 588L24 -4L32 -12C57 -4 86 4 108 9L143 187C198 275 324 386 375 386C394 386 399 367 385 311L331 87C315 22 322 -12 351 -12C387 -12 452 24 509 90Z" id="g50-105"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,28.208,-5.741)"><path d="M397 380C406 395 404 411 396 425S369 451 350 451C302 451 239 372 192 294H189L199 338C214 407 207 451 180 451C152 451 83 405 30 345L48 318C87 354 117 372 125 372S135 362 127 324L55 -5L61 -12C87 -5 117 3 139 5C154 87 168 162 179 207C198 250 240 310 260 332C281 355 297 366 307 366C321 366 333 360 347 346C351 342 360 342 369 348C379 355 389 366 397 380Z" id="g50-115"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,19.846,3.784)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z" id="g50-51"></path></g></svg> plotted versus <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M415" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 12.3012 12.7178" width="12.3012pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z" id="g113-224"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.228,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path></g></svg>.</span> (b) For <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M416" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 39.7513 12.7178" width="39.7513pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z" id="g113-224"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.228,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.806,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.069,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,33.309,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path></g></svg>,</span> <span class="nowrap"><svg height="13.9365pt" id="M417" style="vertical-align:-3.834pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -10.1025 51.0489 13.9365" width="51.0489pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M610 18C585 26 567 34 540 68C517 97 499 128 476 171C452 215 425 276 413 304C496 332 570 394 570 494C570 555 545 595 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250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z" id="g121-108"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.618,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z" id="g113-224"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,19.846,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z" id="g50-51"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.424,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,39.687,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z" id="g113-52"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,45.928,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z" id="g113-47"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,48.892,0)"><path d="M244 635C114 635 38 519 38 422C38 317 111 240 217 240C236 240 255 244 277 256L345 292C311 140 203 39 59 15L64 -15C89 -15 150 -5 204 17C339 72 440 202 440 386C440 521 368 635 244 635ZM228 602C326 602 352 479 352 390C352 370 351 347 348 324C327 308 293 296 258 296C174 296 124 369 124 458C124 517 152 602 228 602Z" id="g113-58"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,55.133,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path></g></svg>,</span> system (<a href="https://static-preview.hindawi.com/articles/jam/volume-2018/1582159/figures/#EEq1">1</a>) has two positive equilibrium points. The solid curve stands for the stable equilibrium and the dashed curve stands for the unstable equilibrium. The other parameters’ values are given in Table <a href="../tab3/">3</a>.</div>

Journal of Applied Mathematics

fig5

Figure 5

Figure 5: Contagious Criminal Career Models Showing Backward Bifurcations: Implications for Crime Control Policies 