Structural Analysis of Shipping Fleet Capacity

Table 2

Estimated results of the SEM for bulker ship.

Simultaneous equations/Dependent	Variables	Coefficient	Std. Error	Prob.	Adjusted R-square	Durbin-Watson stat
Equation (1); Neworder	Constant	-75.511	42.749	0.085	0.612	1.972
	Trade	-0.020	0.079	0.807
	Fleet	0.117	0.360	0.746
	NBPI	0.995	0.441	0.030
	Orderbook	0.014	0.079	0.861
Equation (2); Fleet	Constant	-159.629	48.180	0.002	0.994	1.834
	Neworder(-2)^a	0.022	0.079	0.783
	NBPI	-0.970	0.134	0.000
	Bunkerprice	-0.090	0.036	0.018
	Trade	0.232	0.011	0.000
	AR(1)	0.632	0.176	0.001
Equation (3); Demolition	Constant	-34.914	7.816	0.000	0.828	2.089
	HighAge	0.413	0.170	0.020
	Laws	-11.522	3.009	0.001
	Fleet	0.077	0.010	0.000
	Neworder	-0.131	0.024	0.000
	CRU	0.118	0.032	0.001
	AR(1)	-0.471	0.234	0.051

Note: (-2) is the two-year lagged variable of Neworder. The Durbin-Watson statistics suggest one-order serial correlation of the residuals in the equations, so AR is added to deal this issue.