Prediction on Peak Values of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Chinese Transportation Industry Based on the SVR Model and Scenario Analysis

Table 5

Growth rates setting of carbon dioxide emissions’ influencing factors in the Chinese transportation industry.

Scenario	Year	Growth rate setting (%)
		GDP	Population	Urbanization rate	Energy consumptions structure	Energy intensity	Industrial structure
High-carbon scenario	2018–2025	6.3	0.5	1.4	−1.5	−1.8	−1.3
	2025–2030	5.8	0.3	1.2	−1.1	−1.6	−1.2
	2031–2035	5.3	−0.1	1.0	−0.8	−1.4	−1.1
	2036–2040	4.8	−0.2	0.8	−0.5	−1.2	−1.0
	2041–2045	4.3	−0.3	0.7	−0.3	−1.0	−0.9
	2046–2050	3.8	−0.4	0.6	−0.1	−0.8	−0.8
Baseline scenario	2018–2025	6.0	0.4	1.5	−2.0	−2.0	−1.5
	2025–2030	5.5	0.2	1.3	−1.6	−1.8	−1.4
	2031–2035	5.0	−0.2	1.1	−1.3	−1.6	−1.3
	2036–2040	4.5	−0.3	0.9	−1.0	−1.4	−1.2
	2041–2045	4.0	−0.4	0.8	−0.8	−1.2	−1.1
	2046–2050	3.5	−0.5	0.7	−0.6	−1.0	−1.0
Low-carbon scenario	2018–2025	5.7	0.3	1.6	−2.5	−2.2	−1.7
	2025–2030	5.2	0.1	1.4	−2.1	−2.0	−1.6
	2031–2035	4.7	−0.3	1.2	−1.8	−1.8	−1.5
	2036–2040	4.2	−0.4	1.0	−1.5	−1.6	−1.4
	2041–2045	3.7	−0.5	0.9	−1.3	−1.4	−1.3
	2046–2050	3.2	−0.6	0.8	−1.1	−1.2	−1.2