Exploring Influencing Factors of Intercity Mode Choice from View of Entire Travel Chain

Table 3

Parameter estimation from Bayesian multinomial logit model.

Variable	Airplane					HSR					Express bus
	Mean	S.D.	2.5%	97.5%	OR	Mean	S.D.	2.5%	97.5%	OR	Mean	S.D.	2.5%	97.5%	OR
Age	—	—	—	—	—	0.2320	0.0898	0.0525	0.4098	1.2611	—	—	—	—	—
Car ownership (yes vs. no)	0.7630	0.2790	0.2228	1.3187	2.1446	0.3019	0.1285	0.0524	0.5431	1.3525	1.0466	0.1089	0.8547	1.2607	2.8479
Ticketing method (online vs. counter)	3.8221	0.4435	2.9720	4.6887	45.7020	0.6876	0.2334	0.2319	1.1427	1.9890	—	—	—	—	—
Travel purpose (mandatory vs leisure)	0.4430	0.2038	0.0731	0.8601	1.5573	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Travel distance	0.0021	0.0004	0.0014	0.0028	1.0021	—	—	—	—	—	−0.0018	0.0003	−0.0023	−0.0012	0.9982
Standardized intercity travel cost	0.0874	0.2033	8.3459	9.1509	1.0913	0.0408	0.1015	3.8786	4.2649	1.0416	—	—	—	—	—
Standardized intercity travel time	−8.7058	0.3819	−8.7133	−8.6984	0.0002	−1.6856	0.1578	−1.6888	−1.6825	0.1853	0.0176	0.1955	0.0136	0.0213	1.0177
Safety	—	—	—	—	—	0.4788	0.1322	0.2014	0.7292	1.6142	—	—	—	—	—
Comfort	0.5972	0.1817	0.2400	0.9401	1.8171	0.4784	0.1078	0.2770	0.7035	1.6134	−0.4663	0.1119	−0.6844	−0.2479	0.6273
Punctuality	—	—	—	—	—	0.3557	0.1007	0.1614	0.5563	1.4271	−0.5674	0.1266	−0.8112	−0.3332	0.5670
Access time	0.4424	0.1920	0.0608	0.8085	1.5565	—	—	—	—	—	−0.4890	0.1211	−0.7285	−0.2553	0.6132
Egress time	0.8259	0.2038	0.4359	1.2334	2.2839	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Intercept	−12.3802	0.3728	−13.0941	−11.6221	—	−6.4588	0.0867	−6.6117	−6.2834	—	4.4313	0.1747	4.1208	4.8361	—
DIC	1265.86