Last-Mile Shuttle Planning for Improving Bus Commuters’ Travel Time Reliability: A Case Study of Beijing

Table 5

Fitting results of IVT.

Line		Gaussian	Weibull	Laplace	Lognormal	Parameters of best fit
320 upwards	R-square	0.958	0.952	0.934	0.996	a = 1.315
	RMSE	0.019	0.019	0.022	0.006	b = 0.476
320 downwards	R-square	0.965	0.979	0.914	0.987	a = 1.339
	RMSE	0.015	0.011	0.057	0.009	b = 0.406
333 upwards	R-square	0.965	0.958	0.952	0.992	a = 1.328
	RMSE	0.015	0.016	0.018	0.007	b = 0.421
333 downwards	R-square	0.921	0.879	0.935	0.956	a = 1.275
	RMSE	0.021	0.026	0.019	0.015	b = 0.483
362 upwards	R-square	0.952	0.952	0.935	0.995	a = 1.12
	RMSE	0.020	0.020	0.023	0.006	b = 0.445
362 downwards	R-square	0.951	0.954	0.935	0.990	a = 1.113
	RMSE	0.019	0.018	0.021	0.008	b = 0.521
509 upwards	R-square	0.943	0.934	0.934	0.986	a = 1.211
	RMSE	0.021	0.023	0.023	0.011	b = 0.449
509 downwards	R-square	0.927	0.918	0.948	0.972	a = 1.430
	RMSE	0.018	0.019	0.016	0.011	b = 0.495
521 upwards	R-square	0.949	0.967	0.953	0.980	a = 1.143
	RMSE	0.017	0.015	0.017	0.011	b = 0.644
521 downwards	R-square	0.942	0.944	0.954	0.982	a = 1.024
	RMSE	0.022	0.021	0.020	0.012	b = 0.562
570 upwards	R-square	0.973	0.973	0.938	0.996	a = 1.145
	RMSE	0.016	0.015	0.023	0.006	b = 0.402
570 downwards	R-square	0.975	0.966	0.953	0.992	a = 1.192
	RMSE	0.016	0.018	0.021	0.009	b = 0.377
963 upwards	R-square	0.933	0.945	0.946	0.989	a = 1.384
	RMSE	0.015	0.013	0.014	0.006	b = 0.576
963 downwards	R-square	0.918	0.923	0.931	0.981	a = 1.319
	RMSE	0.019	0.018	0.017	0.009	b = 0.478
105M	R-square	0.977	0.968	0.963	0.986	a = 1.219
	RMSE	0.018	0.021	0.025	0.014	b = 0.346
116M	R-square	0.959	0.967	0.952	0.992	a = 1.260
	RMSE	0.010	0.009	0.0109	0.004	b = 0.501
117M	R-square	0.932	0.951	0.929	0.983	a = 1.317
	RMSE	0.022	0.019	0.023	0.011	b = 0.485
118M	R-square	0.960	0.971	0.949	0.986	a = 1.242
	RMSE	0.017	0.015	0.019	0.010	b = 0.496
120M	R-square	0.894	0.918	0.890	0.965	a = 1.433
	RMSE	0.024	0.022	0.025	0.014	b = 0.463
121M	R-square	0.883	0.938	0.893	0.983	a = 1.117
	RMSE	0.028	0.021	0.027	0.011	b = 0.531
123M	R-square	0.953	0.952	0.938	0.990	a = 1.339
	RMSE	0.019	0.019	0.021	0.009	b = 0.406