Estimating the Potential Modal Split of Any Future Mode Using Revealed Preference Data

Table 11

Calculated modal split for a shared autonomous car with sensitivity analysis ranges between brackets based on a 20% variation of all mode attributes.

Mode	Current modal split (%)	Future modal split
		MNL (%)	NL (in nest with carpool) (%)
Car	33	25 (22–25)	31 (29–31)
Carpool	14	10 (9.5–10)	9.0 (8.8–9.0)
Transit	4.9	3.6 (3.3–3.6)	4.1 (3.9–4.1)
Cycle	30	23 (21–23)	25 (23–25)
Walk	18	15 (14–15)	16 (15–16)
Shared autonomous car	—	24 (24–30)	15 (15–20)