Using Artificial Intelligence to Develop a Multivariate Model with a Machine Learning Model to Predict Complications in Mexican Diabetic Patients without Arterial Hypertension (National Nested Case-Control Study): Metformin and Elevated Normal Blood Pressure Are Risk Factors, and Obesity Is Protective
Table 3
In-depth analysis of the predictors for the model of chronic complications in patients with diabetes.
Predictor
Value
SHAP
OR
CI
Smoking
Yes
0
2.045
[1.951, 2.144]
<0.001
Years smoking
(0.999, 10.0]
0
1.225
[1.203, 1.248]
<0.001
Years smoking
(10.0, 20.0]
0
1.3
[1.274, 1.326]
<0.001
Years smoking
(20.0, 30.0]
0
1.309
[1.281, 1.338]
<0.001
Years smoking
(30.0, 38.0]
0.269083
0.388
[0.38, 0.396]
<0.001
Years smoking
(38.0, 56.0]
0
1.338
[1.305, 1.371]
<0.001
MIDE follow-up: discharge
Yes
0
1.434
[1.366, 1.505]
<0.001
MIDE follow-up: continue
Yes
0.202862
1.756
[1.725, 1.787]
<0.001
MIDE follow-up: death
Yes
0
3.51
[1.83, 6.731]
<0.001
MIDE follow-up: abandonment
Yes
0
1.613
[1.322, 1.967]
<0.001
MIDE follow-up: secondary care
Yes
0
3.587
[3.163, 4.067]
<0.001
Antidiabetic Tx: acarbose
Yes
0
3.214
[2.881, 3.585]
<0.001
Antidiabetic Tx: phenformin
Yes
0
1.463
[0.545, 3.929]
0.450
Antidiabetic Tx: glibenclamide
Yes
0
3.166
[3.061, 3.275]
<0.001
Antidiabetic Tx: glimepiride
Yes
0
5.225
[3.823, 7.14]
<0.001
Antidiabetic Tx: glipizide
Yes
0
2.988
[1.323, 6.746]
0.008
Antidiabetic Tx: metformin
Yes
0.184438
3.908
[3.792, 4.029]
<0.001
Antidiabetic Tx: pioglitazone
Yes
0
5.603
[4.817, 6.518]
<0.001
Antidiabetic Tx: rosiglitazone
Yes
0
3.076
[2.542, 3.723]
<0.001
Antidiabetic Tx: sitagliptin
Yes
0
11.055
[9.378, 13.033]
<0.001
Antidiabetic Tx: tolbutamide
Yes
0
3.152
[1.672, 5.944]
<0.001
Age
(31.999, 50.0]
0.134289
0.641
[0.629, 0.654]
<0.001
Age
(50.0, 55.0]
0
0.913
[0.894, 0.933]
<0.001
Age
(55.0, 60.0]
0
1.013
[0.992, 1.034]
0.220
Age
(60.0, 67.0]
0
1.214
[1.19, 1.239]
<0.001
Age
(67.0, 104.0]
0.085687
1.447
[1.417, 1.477]
<0.001
BMI
(19.99, 25.20]
0
1.151
[1.128, 1.175]
<0.001
BMI
(25.20, 27.54]
0
1.06
[1.039, 1.082]
<0.001
BMI
(27.54, 29.85]
0
1.022
[1.001, 1.043]
0.038
BMI
(29.86, 32.88]
0
0.981
[0.961, 1.001]
0.067
BMI
(32.88, 60.0]
0
0.816
[0.8, 0.833]
<0.001
Maximum weight
(45.99, 76.0]
0
1.23
[1.206, 1.255]
<0.001
Maximum weight
(76.0, 85.0]
0
1.252
[1.227, 1.277]
<0.001
Maximum weight
(85.0, 97.0]
0
1.306
[1.279, 1.332]
<0.001
Maximum weight
(97.0, 116.5]
0.124975
0.56
[0.55, 0.57]
<0.001
Maximum weight
(116.5, 175.0]
0
1.274
[1.231, 1.319]
<0.001
Nutrition consultation
Yes
0.079658
1.662
[1.626, 1.699]
<0.001
Fasting glucose
(70.999, 120.0]
0
0.676
[0.662, 0.689]
<0.001
Fasting glucose
(120.0, 146.0]
0
0.762
[0.746, 0.778]
<0.001
Fasting glucose
(146.0, 185.0]
0
0.986
[0.966, 1.006]
0.167
Fasting glucose
(185.0, 250.0]
0
1.169
[1.146, 1.193]
<0.001
Fasting glucose
(250.0, 500.0]
0.025681
1.702
[1.667, 1.737]
<0.001
HbA1c
(2.999, 6.0]
0.075796
0.719
[0.705, 0.734]
<0.001
HbA1c
(6.0, 6.9]
0
1.078
[1.057, 1.1]
<0.001
HbA1c
(6.9, 7.8]
0
0.988
[0.968, 1.009]
0.273
HbA1c
(7.8, 9.3]
0
1.107
[1.085, 1.13]
<0.001
HbA1c
(9.3, 16.0]
0
1.189
[1.165, 1.213]
<0.001
Abortions
(0.999, 2.0]
0
0.797
[0.774, 0.82]
<0.001
Abortions
(2.0, 4.0]
0
1.252
[1.217, 1.289]
<0.001
Cesarean section
(0.998, 2.0]
0
0.821
[0.801, 0.842]
<0.001
Cesarean section
(2.0, 3.0]
0
1.218
[1.189, 1.249]
<0.001
Pregnancies
(0.999, 3.0]
0
1.141
[1.121, 1.162]
<0.001
Pregnancies
(3.0, 4.0]
0.050018
0.725
[0.713, 0.737]
<0.001
Pregnancies
(4.0, 5.0]
0
1.181
[1.148, 1.214]
<0.001
Pregnancies
(5.0, 11.0]
0
1.261
[1.235, 1.287]
<0.001
Deliveries
(0.999, 3.0]
0
1.17
[1.151, 1.19]
<0.001
Deliveries
(3.0, 4.0]
0.069664
0.729
[0.717, 0.741]
<0.001
Deliveries
(4.0, 10.0]
0
1.245
[1.221, 1.269]
<0.001
Self-care: attached to the treatment
Yes
0.062306
1.351
[1.323, 1.379]
<0.001
Self-care: self-medication
Yes
0
2.58
[2.466, 2.7]
<0.001
Self-care: diabetes education
Yes
0
1.346
[1.318, 1.374]
<0.001
Self-care: physical activity
Yes
0.055163
1.331
[1.303, 1.36]
<0.001
Diastolic pressure
(39.999, 70.0]
0
0.84
[0.826, 0.853]
<0.001
Diastolic pressure
(70.0, 80.0]
0
1.095
[1.078, 1.113]
<0.001
Diastolic pressure
(80.0, 190.0]
0
1.204
[1.175, 1.233]
<0.001
Systolic pressure
(79.999, 110.0]
0
0.815
[0.8, 0.829]
<0.001
Systolic pressure
(110.0, 120.0]
0
0.974
[0.957, 0.991]
<0.001
Systolic pressure
(120.0, 130.0]
0
1.147
[1.124, 1.171]
<0.001
Systolic pressure
(130.0, 242.0]
0
1.23
[1.204, 1.257]
<0.001
Pulse pressure
(1, 40.0]
0
0.853
[0.839, 0.867]
<0.001
Pulse pressure
(40.0, 50.0]
0
1.041
[1.022, 1.06]
<0.001
Pulse pressure
(50.0, 170.0]
0
1.205
[1.181, 1.228]
<0.001
Ketoacidosis
Yes
0.002285
0.561
[0.489, 0.644]
<0.001
Hyperglycemia
Yes
0.044642
4.5
[4.259, 4.755]
<0.001
Hyperosmolar
Yes
0
3.612
[2.766, 4.717]
<0.001
Hypoglycemia
Yes
0
2.563
[2.227, 2.949]
<0.001
Tx: treatment; OR: odds ratio; CI: 95% confidence interval; : the value of statistical significance. This table presents the results obtained by the XGBoost algorithm when trained to predict the dependent variable of chronic complication. The order of the variables is descending according to their importance value (SHAP) to predict said variable. The value column presents the value used for each intervening variable during the training. In addition, the odds ratio (OR) values, confidence interval (CI), and statistical significance value () are presented. The notation (#, #] represents a range that does not include the first value but does include the second value. For calculating odds ratios, values outside of the range are used as the reference value, such as lower or higher values in the database.
