Research on Population Development Trend in Huizhou of China Forecast Based on Optimal Weighted Combination Method and Fractional Grey Model

Table 1

Estimated results of Huizhou population with various models, units: 10,000.

Year	Raw	Linear	Growth	GM	OWC	FGM	ARIMA	Logistic
2008	418.65	437.62	437.47	418.65	422.08	418.65	436.45	437.49
2009	435.08	442.83	442.53	450.79	451.32	436.79	432.32	442.75
2010	460.11	448.04	447.64	454.58	455.85	452.83	455.92	448.02
2011	463.36	453.25	452.81	458.40	460.09	462.62	472.40	453.28
2012	467.40	458.46	458.04	462.25	464.03	468.99	465.16	458.53
2013	470.00	463.67	463.33	466.14	467.66	473.19	464.59	463.77
2014	472.66	468.88	468.68	470.06	470.98	475.91	462.18	469.01
2015	475.55	474.09	474.09	474.01	473.99	477.55	470.63	474.23
2016	477.50	479.30	479.57	478.00	476.69	478.37	477.42	479.44
2017	477.70	484.51	485.10	482.02	479.06	478.54	484.94	484.64
2018	483.00	489.72	490.71	486.07	481.11	478.20	489.18	489.83
MAPE		1.70%	1.76%	1.03%	0.81%	0.56%	1.40%	1.69%