Research Article
Predicting the Population Growth and Structure of China Based on Grey Fractional-Order Models
Table 2
Predictions of population size and gender composition.
| | | Year | Gross population predicted values (unit: people) | Male population predicted values (unit: people) | Female population predicted values (unit: people) | Gender ratio |
| | The fitting samples area | 2015 | 13.7462 | 7.0414 | 6.7048 | 1.0502 | | 2016 | 13.8271 | 7.0815 | 6.7456 | 1.0498 | | 2017 | 13.9003 | 7.1135 | 6.7868 | 1.0481 | | 2018 | 13.9548 | 7.1355 | 6.8193 | 1.0464 | | 2019 | 14.0000 | 7.1525 | 6.8475 | 1.0445 |
| | Short-term forecast area | 2020 | 14.0395 | 7.1665 | 6.8731 | 1.0427 | | 2021 | 14.0753 | 7.1784 | 6.8970 | 1.0408 | | 2022 | 14.1084 | 7.1889 | 6.9196 | 1.0389 | | 2023 | 14.1395 | 7.1983 | 6.9414 | 1.0370 | | 2024 | 14.1691 | 7.2069 | 6.9624 | 1.0351 | | 2025 | 14.1974 | 7.2147 | 6.9829 | 1.0332 |
| | Medium- to long-term forecast area | 2030 | 14.2669 | 7.2260 | 7.0482 | 1.0252 | | 2035 | 14.3022 | 7.2304 | 7.0886 | 1.0200 | | 2040 | 14.3192 | 7.2319 | 7.1131 | 1.0167 | | 2045 | 14.3274 | 7.2323 | 7.1279 | 1.0146 | | 2050 | 14.3314 | 7.2325 | 7.1369 | 1.0134 |
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