Research Article
Predicting the Population Growth and Structure of China Based on Grey Fractional-Order Models
Table 3
Predictions of birth rate, death rate and natural growth rate.
| | | Year | Birth rate predicted values (unit: ‰) | Death rate predicted values (unit: ‰) | Natural growth rate predicted values (unit: ‰) |
| | The fitting samples area | 2015 | 12.07 | 7.11 | 4.96 | | 2016 | 12.95 | 7.09 | 5.86 | | 2017 | 12.22 | 7.11 | 4.96 | | 2018 | 11.28 | 7.13 | 4.05 | | 2019 | 10.30 | 7.14 | 3.34 |
| | Short-term forecast area | 2020 | 9.36 | 7.15 | 2.81 | | 2021 | 8.47 | 7.16 | 2.42 | | 2022 | 7.66 | 7.18 | 2.13 | | 2023 | 6.92 | 7.19 | 1.91 | | 2024 | 6.25 | 7.19 | 1.74 | | 2025 | 5.65 | 7.20 | 1.60 |
| | Medium- to long-term forecast area | 2030 | 4.59 | 7.21 | 1.27 | | 2035 | 3.91 | 7.20 | 1.06 | | 2040 | 3.47 | 7.19 | 0.93 | | 2045 | 3.15 | 7.18 | 0.83 | | 2050 | 2.90 | 7.17 | 0.76 |
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