Research Article
A Comparative Analysis of the Forecasted Mortality Rate under Normal Conditions and the COVID-19 Excess Mortality Rate in Malaysia
Table 7
Results of the goodness-of-fit measures for the men’s mortality.
| | Models | Measures | Hold-out | Repeated hold-out | LOOCV |
| | HP | MAPE (%) | 5.6770 | 5.1238 | 7.8842 | | MAE | 7.8611 × 10−04 | 8.1409 × 10−04 | 1.2178 × 10−03 | | SSE | 5.1695 × 10−05 | 7.8236 × 10−05 | 1.697110−04 | | MSE | 3.0409 × 10−06 | 4.6021 × 10−06 | 9.9829 × 10−06 |
| | KT | MAPE (%) | 34.9447 | 33.1597 | 35.7525 | | MAE | 1.4566 × 10−03 | 1.4572 × 10−03 | 2.1629 × 10−03 | | SSE | 1.8423 × 10−04 | 1.8385 × 10−04 | 4.3728 × 10−04 | | MSE | 1.0837 × 10−05 | 1.0815 × 10−05 | 2.5723 × 10−05 |
| | WT | MAPE (%) | 14.7517 | 18.2086 | 27.8585 | | MAE | 1.4752 × 10−01 | 1.7130 × 10−03 | 3.3979 × 10−03 | | SSE | 6.1264 × 10−05 | 4.0727 × 10−04 | 1.1290 × 10−03 | | MSE | 3.6038 × 10−06 | 2.3957 × 10−05 | 6.6410 × 10−05 |
| | RP | MAPE (%) | 19.1942 | 22.7014 | 39.1911 | | MAE | 1.0162 × 10−03 | 1.1772 × 10−03 | 2.6291 × 10−03 | | SSE | 6.6918 × 10−05 | 1.0276 × 10−04 | 5.2375 × 10−04 | | MSE | 3.9363 × 10−06 | 6.0449 × 10−06 | 3.0809 × 10−05 |
|
|
Note: bold values indicate the lowest measurements from their respective rows.
|
