Research Article

A Risk Prediction Model for Adverse Events after Surgical Valve Replacement

Table 1

Baseline characteristics of the population.

VariableTotal
N = 458
No event
N = 397
Event
N = 61
value

Follow-up period (months)14.4 (8.2–20.9)15.7 (10.1–21.5)1.1 (1.0–6.5)<0.001
Age (years)61 ± 1359 ± 1261 ± 150.075
Sociodemographic factors
 Men (n, %)245 (53%)216 (54%)29 (48%)<0.001
 Elderly (>65 y, n, %)183 (39%)151 (38%)32 (52%)0.317
Lifestyle risk factors
 Current smoking (n, %)95 (21%)83 (21%)12 (20%)0.825
 Current drinking (n, %)89 (19%)76 (19%)13 (21%)0.690
Current health status
 Overall overweight/obesity (n, %)193 (42%)169 (43%)24 (39%)0.635
 Diabetes (n, %)47 (10%)35 (9%)12 (20%)0.009
 Hypertension (n, %)145 (32%)121 (30%)24 (39%)0.168
 Dyslipidemia (n, %)217 (47%)193 (49%)24 (39%)0.177
 Coronary heart disease (n, %)74 (16%)61 (15%)13 (21%)0.240
 Atrial fibrillation (n, %)138 (30%)126 (32%)12 (20%)0.056
 Chronic kidney disease (n, %)157 (34%)131 (33%)26 (43%)0.140
 Hepatic insufficiency (n, %)25 (5%)19 (5%)6 (10%)0.106
Metabolic risk factor
 BMI (kg/m2)23.5 ± 3.523.5 ± 3.623.5 ± 3.20.764
 SBP (mmHg)128 (115–144)128 (115–143)131 (114–146)0.391
 DBP (mmHg)76 (67–86)76 (67–87)74 (66–82)0.161
 Hemoglobin (g/L)131 (119–141)133 (121–143)124 (106–134)<0.001
 WBC (10^9/L)6.2 (5.1–7.7)6.3 (5.0–7.7)6.2 (5.2–7.5)0.661
 Total lymphocyte count (10^9)1.5 (1.3–1.9)1.6 (1.3–1.9)1.4 (1.2–1.8)0.047
 RDW (%)13.2 (12.7–14.1)13.2 (12.7–14.0)13.6 (12.7–14.9)0.082
 Platelet (10^9/L)201 (166–244)202 (167–247)192 (166–214)0.143
 Albumin38.9 (36.4–41.1)39.1 (36.8–41.3)37.2 (33.5–39.4)<0.001
 Aspartate aminotransferase (U/L)23.5 (19.0–32.0)24.05 (19.0–31.0)22.5 (18.3–32.8)0.874
 Urea nitrogen (mmol/L)6.3 (5.2–8.0)6.4 (5.2–8.0)6.1 (5.0–8.2)0.450
 Uric acid (umol/L)380 (312–465)380 (316–465)372 (306–467)0.869
 TC (mmol/L)4.6 (3.8–5.4)4.6 (3.9–5.4)4.2 (3.4–5.1)0.043
 TG (mmol/L)1.3 (1.0–1.8)1.3 (0.9–1.8)1.3 (1.0–1.8)0.690
 HDL-c (mmol/L)1.0 (0.8–1.3)1.0 (0.9–1.3)1.0 (0.7–1.2)0.032
 LDL-c (mmol/L)2.5 (2.0–3.1)2.5 (2.0–3.1)2.4 (1.8–3.0)0.120
 PNI46.8 (43.9–50.1)47 (44.6–50.4)44.3 (39.1–47.1)<0.001
 RAR0.33 (0.31–0.38)0.34 (0.31–0.38)0.37 (0.33–0.43)<0.001
 RPR0.07 (0.05–0.08)0.07 (0.05–0.08)0.07 (0.06–0.09)<0.001
 HRR10.00 (8.67–10.91)10.08 (8.87–10.98)9.02 (7.44–10.28)0.033
 PLR126.33 (99.30–169.01)126.05 (98.04–169.08)127.91 (105.43–168.52)<0.001
Echocardiography
 LVEF (%)63.1 (56.1–66.9)63.1 (56.1–66.9)62.7 (57.5–66.9)0.908
 LVEDD (mm)56.0 (50.0–62.0)56.0 (50.0–62.0)55.0 (49.0–62.0)0.528
 LAD (mm)49.0 (44.0–55.0)49.0 (45.0–56.0)47.0 (44.0–52.0)0.032
Type of the surgery0.509
 Valve repair226 (49.3%)193 (48.6%)33(54.1%)
 Valve replacement232 (50.7%)204 (51.4%)28 (45.9%)
Type of the valve0.394
 Mitral valve225 (49.1%)191 (48.1%)34 (55.7%)
 Tricuspid valve204 (44.5%)179 (45.1%)25 (41.0%)
 Aortic valve29 (6.3%)27 (6.8%)2 (3.3%)

BMI, body mass index; SBP, systolic blood pressure; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; WBC, white blood cell; RDW, red cell distribution width; TC, total cholesterol; TG, triglycerides; HDL-c, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol; LDL-c, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol; RAR, RDW-to-albumin ratio; RPR, RDW-to-platelet ratio; HRR, hemoglobin-to-RDW ratio; PLR, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; LVEDD, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter; LAD, left atrium diameter.