Scenario Analysis of Water-Saving Potential in Yeast Manufacturing Industry under the Guidance of Water Intake Quota

Table 2

Scenario design for water-saving potential calculation.

No.	Parameter setting method	Policy implication
Scenario 0: BAU scenario	Industry water efficiency is slowly increasing, including the backward capacity that does not meet the standard for existing enterprises (Figure 2).	The norm is not implemented, a benchmark scenario compared to other scenarios.
Scenario 1: bottom-line scenario	The backward production capacity meets the standard. Five years after the norm takes effect, the main production capacity (60%) reaches the bars for newly built enterprises. The production capacity that only passes the bars for existing enterprises and reaches the advanced ones, respectively, accounts for 20% (Figure 3).	Policy implementation is weak. Only the minimum requirements are met, representing the bottom line of water savings.
Scenario 2: ideal scenario	The backward production capacity meets the standard. Five years after the norm takes effect, all the production capacity is advanced (Figure 4).	The norm plays a significant role in significantly improving the water efficiency of the yeast manufacturing industry. The estimates represent the ideal amount of water savings.
Scenario 3: expected scenario	The backward production capacity meets the standard. Five years after the norm takes effect, with the replacement of production capacity, 70% of the production capacity in the industry reaches the bars for newly built enterprises, and 30% reaches the advanced level (Figure 5).	The norm plays a role in improving the water efficiency of the yeast manufacturing industry. The estimates represent the expected amount of water savings.