A Bayesian Prediction Spatial Model for Confirmed Dengue Cases in the State of Chiapas, Mexico

<table class="table-group" id="tab2"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Parameter</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 8.28119ptpx;"><svg height="12.1306pt" id="M159" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.9242 8.28119 12.1306" width="8.28119pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,1.481,-2.897)"><path d="M470 557C393 591 314 624 246 666H224C156 624 76 591 0 557L12 532C86 550 163 573 235 596C309 572 384 550 458 532L470 557Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M610 18C585 26 567 34 540 68C517 97 499 128 476 171C452 215 425 276 413 304C496 332 570 394 570 494C570 555 545 595 509 619S419 650 364 650H139L133 622C216 615 219 612 203 527L129 132C112 40 105 36 23 28L17 0H279L285 28C199 34 194 40 211 132L239 284H284C320 284 334 275 351 236C374 182 394 140 420 93C459 23 495 -1 592 -8H600L610 18ZM480 485C480 424 449 372 403 342C374 323 338 316 293 316H245L291 562C296 589 301 601 311 608S337 618 358 618C432 618 480 575 480 485Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Upper CrI</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Intercept <svg height="12.7178pt" id="M160" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 21.3309 12.7178" width="21.3309pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.726,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.672,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></td><td class="align_center">1.00</td><td class="align_center">1.01</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Maximum temperature <svg height="12.7178pt" id="M161" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 21.3309 12.7178" width="21.3309pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.726,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.672,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></td><td class="align_center">1.00</td><td class="align_center">1.02</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Altitude <svg height="12.7178pt" id="M162" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 21.3309 12.7178" width="21.3309pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.726,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.672,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></td><td class="align_center">1.00</td><td class="align_center">1.00</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Rainfall <svg height="12.7178pt" id="M163" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 21.3309 12.7178" width="21.3309pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.726,3.132)"><path d="M290 377C321 398 342 415 358 430C378 450 389 473 389 502C389 578 329 635 238 635H237C184 635 137 610 109 578L64 515L88 493C112 529 154 573 208 573S303 542 303 482C303 409 233 370 141 341L149 308C165 313 190 319 215 319C272 319 341 283 341 193C342 98 292 43 222 43C163 43 122 72 96 94C88 101 79 100 70 94C61 87 47 73 46 60C44 47 48 37 62 23C76 10 118 -12 165 -12C238 -12 430 62 430 223C430 297 379 359 290 375V377Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.672,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></td><td class="align_center">1.00</td><td class="align_center">1.02</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="3"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>Gelman and Rubin’s convergence diagnostic to the parameter.</div>

Journal of Tropical Medicine

tab2

Table 2

Table 2: A Bayesian Prediction Spatial Model for Confirmed Dengue Cases in the State of Chiapas, Mexico 