Using a Novel Grey System Model to Forecast Natural Gas Consumption in China

Table 1

The fitted values (unit: 100 million cubic meters) and MAPE of five grey models.

Year	Actual value	Model (39)	ARGM(1, 1)	Reference [14]	WLSGM(1, 1)	DGM(1, 1)
1995	177.53143	173.677	177.53143	190.24323	177.53143	177.53143
1996	188.04992	181.593	187.961	183.65849	190.990	149.31
1997	176.13278	191.694	201.029	184.90875	207.706	169.38
1998	218.69985	204.583	217.403	193.99401	228.466	192.15
1999	215.3371	221.030	237.920	210.91426	254.251	217.98
2000	244.81169	242.015	263.628	235.66952	286.276	247.29
2001	274.55447	268.793	295.840	268.25976	326.051	280.53
2002	292.18069	302.961	336.202	308.68501	375.451	318.25
2003	339.45429	346.559	386.775	356.94525	436.806	361.03
2004	397.28586	402.191	450.143	413.04049	513.010	409.57
2005	486.93617	473.177	529.543	476.97073	607.654	464.63
2006	561.05120	563.756	629.031	548.73596	725.202	527.10
MAPE		3.092	8.657	4.406	18.173	6.96
2007	698.903	679.333	753.690	679.955	871.197	597.96
2008	807.857	826.811	909.888	774.429	1052.523	678.35
MAPE		2.573	10.234	10.75	27.469	15.236