Mathematical Problems in Engineering

Research Article

Research of Vulnerability for Fresh Agricultural-Food Supply Chain Based on Bayesian Network

Table 3

Priori probability of the root nodes of the Bayesian network of the short-term vulnerability of the trading center PD-FAF-SC, the probability of the parent node, and the intermediate node (10⁻³).


Number	Priori probability		Node occurrence probability			Number	Priori probability		Node occurrence probability
Number	Base event		Intermediate event		Top event	Number	Base event		Intermediate event		Top event

X1	θ₁	0.815	0.815	UP 1.327	SC 1.645	X17	θ₁₇	12.58	8.245×10⁻¹¹	0.115
X2	θ₂	0.702	FPS 1.301×10⁻⁷			X18	θ₁₈	0.827	8.245×10⁻¹¹
X3	θ₃	0.339				X19	θ₁₉	8.383	PD 3.076×10⁻⁷
X4	θ₄	0.547				X20	θ₂₀	0.249
X5	θ₅	0.677	PM 0.532×10⁻⁷			X21	θ₂₁	0.147
X6	θ₆	0.874				X22	θ₂₂	0.366	CCD 6.784×10⁻⁷
X7	θ₇	0.089				X23	θ₂₃	0.258
X8	θ₈	0.504	PPE 1.663×10⁻⁴			X24	θ₂₄	7.174
X9	θ₉	0.33	PPE 1.663×10⁻⁴			X25	θ₂₅	0.203	DS 5.151×10⁻⁵	DR 0.203
X10	θ₁₀	0.513	0.513			X26	θ₂₆	0.303
X11	θ₁₁	0.314	CP 2.765×10⁻⁹	MT		X27	θ₂₇	0.169
X12	θ₁₂	0.109				X28	θ₂₈	0.779	TC 1.020×10⁻¹²
X13	θ₁₃	0.074				X29	θ₂₉	0.865
X14	θ₁₄	0.115	CCT			X30	θ₃₀	0.108
X15	θ₁₅	6.17				X31	θ₃₁	83.47
X16	θ₁₆	0.128				X32	θ₃₂	0.167

Data sources: Compilation of National Agricultural Products Cost-Benefit Data, China Commodity Exchange Market Statistics Yearbook, International Agricultural Products Trade Statistics Yearbook, exchange center platform information database, and expert interview data.