Research of Vulnerability for Fresh Agricultural-Food Supply Chain Based on Bayesian Network

Table 4

Priori probability of the root nodes of the Bayesian network of the long-term vulnerability of the trading center PD-FAF-SC, the probability of the parent node, and the intermediate node (10⁻⁵).

Number	Prior probability		Node occurrence probability			Number	Prior probability		Node occurrence probability
	Base event		Intermediate event		Top event		Base event		Intermediate event		Top event
Y1	ρ1	5	LCE; 1.65	UP※; 0.0126	SC※; 6.73	Y16	ρ16	0.308
Y2	ρ2	1.23				Y17	ρ17	31.68
Y3	ρ3	3.23				Y1	ρ1	5	CCD※; 1.153
Y4	ρ4	1.47				Y18	ρ18	2.78
Y5	ρ5	5.54				Y19	ρ19	3.75
Y1	ρ1	5	SCE; 6.84			Y1	ρ1	5	RE; 3.894	DR※; 0.0089
Y6	ρ6	1.54				Y20	ρ20	4.12
Y7	ρ7	42.3				Y21	ρ21	6.33
Y8	ρ8	3.79				Y22	ρ22	4.60
Y9	ρ9	8.97				Y23	ρ23	8.52
Y10	ρ10	6.78				Y24	ρ24	10.4
Y11	ρ11	7.91	DP※; 0.978	MT※; 6.35		Y1	ρ1	5	FDE; 2.287
Y12	ρ12	1.87				Y25	ρ25	6.54
Y1	ρ1	5	CCT※; 0.774			Y26	ρ26	2.60
Y13	ρ13	2.74				Y27	ρ27	3.74
Y14	ρ14	2.55	PD※; 3.821			Y28	ρ28	5.01
Y15	ρ15	3.67

Data sources: Compilation of National Agricultural Products Cost-Benefit Data, China Commodity Exchange Market Statistics Yearbook, International Agricultural Products Trade Statistics Yearbook, exchange center platform information database, and expert interview data.