Research Article
Application of Grey System Model to Forecast the Natural Gas Imports in China
Table 2
Simulation of different models for China’s natural gas imports from 2012 to 2019.
| | k | Real value | GPM_NGI | DGM (1, 1) | GM (1, 1) | | Simulated value | Simulation error (%) | Simulated value | Simulation error (%) | Simulated value | Simulation error (%) |
| | Data for simulation | | 2 | 421 | 455.66 | 8.2339 | 421.36 | 0.0846 | 419.58 | 0.3374% | | 3 | 525 | 497.72 | 5.1961 | 490.94 | 6.4882 | 489.00 | 6.8568% | | 4 | 591 | 557.77 | 5.6220 | 572.01 | 3.2136 | 569.91 | 3.5685% | | 5 | 611 | 643.53 | 5.3238 | 666.47 | 9.0779 | 664.21 | 8.7080% | | 6 | 746 | 765.98 | 2.6786 | 776.52 | 4.0916 | 774.10 | 3.7672% | | 7 | 946.3 | 940.84 | 0.5767 | 904.75 | 4.3903 | 902.18 | 4.6620% |
| | Mean relative simulation percentage error | 4.6052 | | 4.5577 | | 4.65 |
| | Data for prediction | | 8 | 1254 | 1190.54 | 5.0610 | 1054.16 | 15.9361 | 1051.46 | 16.1519% | | 9 | 1340 | 1547.09 | 15.4543 | 1228.24 | 8.3403 | 1225.43 | 8.5503% |
| | Mean relative prediction percentage error | 10.2576 | | 12.1382 | | 12.3511 |
| | Global mean relative percentage error | 6.0183 | | 6.4528 | | 6.5752 |
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