Forecasting Natural Gas Consumption in the US Power Sector by a Randomly Optimized Fractional Grey System Model

Table 2

Forecasting results of the FNGM under different step sizes in the power sector’s natural gas consumption.

Time	Raw data	1-step	2-step	3-step
Jan-18	786.11	773.98
Feb-18	690.11	673.68	659.19
Mar-18	756.62	741.09	733.16	725.96
Apr-18	703.99	695.79	686.30	677.71
May-18	848.15	840.66	838.13	835.82
Jun-18	952.64	839.44	835.73	832.34
Jul-18	1223.67	1268.89	1331.45	1389.46
Aug-18	1185.67	1281.92	1311.53	1336.84
Sep-18	1029.91	1037.77	1041.93	1044.49
Oct-18	887.94	863.76	858.65	852.15
Nov-18	763.07	736.87	725.98	714.24
Dec-18	762.34	740.79	726.83	712.69
Jan-19	848.45	832.11	819.91	808.37
Feb-19	779.24	760.05	743.59	728.36
Mar-19	813.45	798.35	786.73	776.22
Apr-19	739.62	726.20	711.73	698.74
May-19	836.02	826.66	820.33	814.52
Jun-19	990.47	918.34	911.44	905.09
Jul-19	1254.53	1240.49	1285.34	1325.15
Aug-19	1277.77	1336.42	1371.14	1400.80
Sep-19	1080.68	1086.31	1089.51	1091.38
Oct-19	936.59	912.01	906.20	899.03
Nov-19	818.80	792.02	780.41	768.00
Dec-19	911.44	894.51	882.68	870.95
Jan-20	931.23	915.78	904.74	894.26
Feb-20	878.63	862.20	847.75	834.35
Mar-20	878.83	862.71	850.29	839.02
Apr-20	763.96	746.91	727.89	710.84
May-20	833.70	823.40	813.30	804.09
Jun-20	1045.39	1028.14	1022.43	1017.07
Jul-20	1372.90	1375.74	1460.99	1542.94
Aug-20	1280.55	1281.02	1273.93	1282.90
MAE		24.45	40.34	55.63
MAPE		2.58%	4.17%	5.64%
RMSE		35.26	51.51	71.21