Predicting Heavy Oil Production by Hybrid Data-Driven Intelligent Models

Table 11

Production prediction results (CSS).

Original data	M1		M2		M3
	Predicted value (t)	Error (%)	Predicted value (t)	Error (%)	Predicted value (t)	Error (%)
194262	198204	2.03	194262	0.00	194262	0.00
327610	321036	2.01	330581	0.91	315426	3.72
275026	279416	1.60	306316	11.38	318620	15.85
288456	289507	0.36	276199	4.25	278959	3.29
255918	259727	1.49	247188	3.41	239756	6.32
293678	286736	2.36	231969	21.01	231826	21.06
203667	203210	0.22	213548	4.85	207474	1.87
178398	181112	1.52	209309	17.33	213798	19.84
167375	171073	2.21	198825	18.79	193887	15.84
212629	197722	7.01	199468	6.19	203776	4.16
224312	209678	6.52	203945	9.08	220345	1.77
171843	162112	5.66	195732	13.90	194037	12.92
159637	162263	1.64	180199	12.88	165218	3.50
200824	203115	1.14	182559	9.10	181642	9.55
219048	228156	4.16	201112	8.19	219341	0.13
209800	218604	4.20	208572	0.59	224027	6.78
225100	231560	2.87	204722	9.05	207988	7.60
215533	219850	2.00	205807	4.51	207897	3.54
MAPE	2.72		8.63		7.65
213587	206639	3.25	219031	2.55	218799	2.44
206547	197102	4.57	210478	1.90	209906	1.63
185624	230109	23.97	198837	7.12	198276	6.82
245624	230379	6.21	236368	3.77	235859	3.98
223487	180238	19.35	239546	7.19	239084	6.98
174543	186955	7.11	188129	7.78	187661	7.52
R^2	−0.32		0.77		0.79
RMSE	26998		11164		10872
MAPE	10.74		5.05		4.89