Predicting Heavy Oil Production by Hybrid Data-Driven Intelligent Models

Table 12

Production prediction results (SAGD).

Original data	M1		M2		M3
	Predicted value (t)	Error (%)	Predicted value (t)	Error (%)	Predicted value (t)	Error (%)
64318	67922	5.60	64318	0.00	64318	0.00
71580	71973	0.55	68622	4.13	69053	3.53
77561	78971	1.82	70001	9.75	70356	9.29
81522	75817	7.00	83599	2.55	84596	3.77
78062	78370	0.39	81830	4.83	81929	4.95
63922	67270	5.24	85714	34.09	85637	33.97
67442	72317	7.23	74104	9.88	74103	9.88
70778	70610	0.24	71460	0.96	71468	0.97
76694	69529	9.34	67715	11.71	67844	11.54
75826	75224	0.79	67232	11.33	67541	10.93
75845	74076	2.33	73472	3.13	73623	2.93
70331	77015	9.50	72380	2.91	72326	2.84
79806	78614	1.49	76091	4.66	79368	0.55
86313	78173	9.43	82120	4.86	82689	4.20
86264	82683	4.15	78645	8.83	78695	8.77
82425	86226	4.61	84322	2.30	83697	1.54
74014	80542	8.82	90628	22.45	89553	20.99
88153	85575	2.92	81537	7.51	81958	7.03
MAPE	4.53		8.10		7.65
91579	84737	7.47	89049	2.76	90457	1.23
93351	84272	9.73	91602	1.87	92325	1.10
79844	89769	12.43	82746	3.63	81241	1.75
94128	87789	6.73	96231	2.23	96534	2.56
95254	116091	21.88	97832	2.71	97958	2.84
96953	93405	3.66	102683	5.91	102584	5.81
R^2	−0.25		0.95		0.96
RMSE	27293		5406		4878
MAPE	16.32		3.50		2.78