A Fuzzy ARIMA Correction Model for Transport Volume Forecast

Table 7

Forecasted production value of the traffic volume by using the fuzzy linear regression model (FMLR), fuzzy time series ARIMA model (FTSARIMA), and correction fuzzy time series ARIMA model (CFTSARIMA).

	FMLR			ARIMA			FTSARIMA			CFTSARIMA			Observed value
	UCL	LCL	PV	UCL	LCL	PV	UCL	LCL	PV	UCL	LCL	PV
1	5.27	4.66	4.80	4.96	4.51	4.73	4.93	4.81	4.73	4.72	4.68	4.27	4.68
2	5.42	4.78	4.93	5.06	4.55	4.80	4.95	4.65	4.80	4.81	4.67	4.35	4.57
3	5.50	4.86	5.01	5.14	4.60	4.87	5.00	4.61	4.87	4.90	4.79	4.42	4.55
4	5.57	4.92	5.08	5.2	4.66	4.93	5.06	4.69	4.93	5.13	4.44	4.47	4.34
5	5.64	4.98	5.14	5.26	4.72	4.99	5.12	4.73	4.99	5.31	4.31	4.53	4.51
6	5.74	5.07	5.23	5.32	4.78	5.05	5.18	4.79	5.05	5.34	4.41	4.59	4.22
7	5.81	5.14	5.30	5.38	4.84	5.11	5.25	4.82	5.11	5.43	4.43	4.65	4.52
8	5.88	5.20	5.37	5.44	4.9	5.17	5.31	4.88	5.17	5.49	4.49	4.70	4.54
9	5.96	5.27	5.44	5.50	4.95	5.23	5.38	4.91	5.23	5.57	4.50	4.76	4.42
10	5.98	5.30	5.47	5.56	5.01	5.28	5.42	4.97	5.28	5.63	4.56	4.80	4.06
11	6.02	5.34	5.51	5.61	5.07	5.34	5.48	5.03	5.34	5.72	4.56	4.85	4.38
12	6.05	5.37	5.54	5.67	5.13	5.40	5.55	5.06	5.40	5.77	4.62	4.90	4.52
13	6.10	5.43	5.60	5.73	5.19	5.46	5.61	5.12	5.46	5.83	4.68	4.95	4.62
14	6.07	5.39	5.56	5.79	5.24	5.52	5.68	5.14	5.52	5.92	4.70	4.98	4.48
15	6.14	5.46	5.63	5.85	5.30	5.57	5.73	5.21	5.57	5.98	4.76	5.03	4.86
16	6.19	5.51	5.69	5.90	5.36	5.63	5.79	5.24	5.63	6.07	4.76	5.08	4.73
17	6.27	5.58	5.76	5.96	5.42	5.69	5.85	5.30	5.69	6.11	4.82	5.14	4.78