A New Growth Curve for Predicting Production Performance of Water-Flooding Oilfields

Table 1

Actual and prediction data of the Sammatrol oilfield.

Time	Annual oil production (×10^4t)			Cumulative oil production (×10^4t)			Water cut (%)
	Actual value	Prediction value	Relative error (%)	Actual value	Prediction value	Relative error (%)	Actual value	Prediction value	Relative error (%)
1969	130	5.9	95.5	130.0	5.9	95.5	0.0	0.1	0.0
1970	430	343.1	20.2	560.0	349.0	37.7	0.0	0.3	0.0
1971	1000	1019.4	−1.9	1560.0	1368.4	12.3	0.0	0.6	0.0
1972	2110	2227.2	−5.6	3670.0	3595.6	2.0	0.5	1.1	−139.2
1973	3900	3996.2	−2.5	7570.0	7591.8	−0.3	2.0	1.9	5.0
1974	6120	6208.8	−1.5	13690.0	13800.6	−0.8	3.9	3.1	21.2
1975	8710	8621.9	1.0	22400.0	22422.6	−0.1	5.5	4.8	13.0
1976	11020	10940.1	0.7	33420.0	33362.7	0.2	9.2	7.2	20.8
1977	13000	12899.3	0.8	46420.0	46262.0	0.3	12.4	10.6	14.8
1978	14320	14326.3	0.0	60740.0	60588.3	0.2	16.1	14.9	7.3
1979	15080	15155.9	−0.5	75820.0	75744.2	0.1	17.7	20.4	−15.6
1980	15480	15415.2	0.4	91300.0	91159.3	0.2	24.1	27.0	−12.3
1981	15030	15191.3	−1.1	106330.0	106350.7	0.0	32.4	34.6	−6.7
1982	14380	14598.3	−1.5	120710.0	120949.0	−0.2	42.7	42.7	0.0
1983	14000	13751.4	1.8	134710.0	134700.4	0.0	54.0	51.0	5.6
1984	13060	12752.5	2.4	147770.0	147452.9	0.2	61.0	59.0	3.2
1985	11090	11683.0	−5.3	158860.0	159135.9	−0.2	67.6	66.4	1.8
1986	10980	10603.5	3.4	169840.0	169739.5	0.1	72.1	72.9	−1.1
1987	9880	9555.7	3.3	179720.0	179295.2	0.2	77.7	78.4	−1.0
1988	8270	8566.1	−3.6	187990.0	187861.2	0.1	83.8	83.0	0.8
1989	7720	7649.5	0.9	195710.0	195510.7	0.1	85.4	86.8	−1.6
1990	6400	6812.8	−6.5	202110.0	202323.6	−0.1	88.2	89.7	−1.7