A New Growth Curve for Predicting Production Performance of Water-Flooding Oilfields

Table 2

Actual and prediction data of Daqing oilfield.

Time	Annual oil production (×10^4t)			Cumulative oil production (×10^4t)			Water cut (%)
	Actual value	Prediction value	Relative error (%)	Actual value	Prediction value	Relative error (%)	Actual value	Prediction value	Relative error (%)
1965	106.1	93.6	11.8	106.1	93.6	11.8	6.8	0.9	86.0
1966	63.4	58.5	7.7	169.5	152.1	10.2	11.9	1.8	84.9
1967	48.4	63.5	−31.1	217.9	215.6	1.1	19.6	2.9	85.4
1968	68.6	72.1	−5.1	286.5	287.7	−0.4	2.4	4.2	−75.9
1969	81.4	82.7	−1.6	367.9	370.4	−0.7	4.5	6.0	−32.4
1970	92.1	94.7	−2.9	460.0	465.1	−1.1	6.7	8.2	−21.7
1971	109.7	107.8	1.8	569.7	572.9	−0.6	10.8	10.9	−0.9
1972	123.5	121.3	1.8	693.2	694.2	−0.1	15.1	14.3	5.5
1973	121.7	134.8	−10.7	814.9	829.0	−1.7	16.4	18.4	−11.9
1974	146.5	147.3	−0.6	961.4	976.3	−1.5	19.8	23.2	−17.0
1975	173.2	158.0	8.8	1134.6	1134.3	0.0	24.9	28.7	−15.4
1976	180.1	166.0	7.8	1314.7	1300.3	1.1	34.2	34.9	−2.2
1977	171.2	170.3	0.5	1485.9	1470.6	1.0	43.7	41.7	4.6
1978	163.2	170.4	−4.4	1649.1	1640.9	0.5	51.8	48.7	6.0
1979	161.1	166.1	−3.1	1810.2	1807.0	0.2	56.5	55.7	1.4
1980	151.5	157.8	−4.1	1961.7	1964.8	−0.2	64.4	62.5	3.0
1981	145.5	146.1	−0.4	2107.2	2110.8	−0.2	70.5	68.8	2.4
1982	130.2	132.1	−1.4	2237.4	2242.9	−0.2	75.1	74.4	0.9
1983	116.3	116.8	−0.5	2353.7	2359.7	−0.3	80.0	79.3	0.8
1984	99.2	101.4	−2.2	2452.9	2461.1	−0.3	83.1	83.5	−0.5
1985	89.9	86.6	3.7	2542.8	2547.7	−0.2	84.0	86.9	−3.5
1986	79.9	72.9	8.7	2622.7	2620.7	0.1	85.5	89.7	−4.9
1987	72	60.8	15.6	2694.7	2681.4	0.5	87.2	91.9	−5.4