Prediction of Drought Severity Using Model-Based Clustering

Table 4

The one-month prediction from the last state in six sequences.

One-month prediction
Sequence	ED	SD	MD	ND	MW	SW	EW
Sequence-1	NA	0.1374	0.1569	0.6247	0.0595	0.0010	0.0205
Sequence-2	NA	0.0010	0.3880	0.5170	0.0572	0.0308	0.0060
Sequence-3	NA	0.0280	0.1260	0.6899	0.0929	0.0460	0.0173
Sequence-4	NA	0.0010	0.3880	0.5170	0.0572	0.0308	0.0060
Sequence-5	NA	0.0237	0.3495	0.5350	0.0576	0.0258	0.0084
Sequence-6	NA	0.0392	0.1296	0.5418	0.0844	0.0552	0.1498

The obtained results from sequence-1 show that the most likely state to visit in next month (i.e., January 2018) is ND; the probability associated with this prediction is slightly higher than 0.624. In other sequences, the ND is also prevailing among other states. This shows that policymakers should make their plans according to this drought state (category) to mitigate its negative impacts.