Poisson Incorporated Credibility Regression Modelling of Systematic Mortality Risk for Populations with Finite Data

<div>A linear trend of the recorded <svg height="12.7373pt" id="M158" style="vertical-align:-3.429399pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.3079 55.883 12.7373" width="55.883pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M238 0V26C174 32 166 38 166 104V712C132 700 70 683 18 677V653C81 647 87 645 87 577V104C87 38 78 32 15 26V0H238Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,3.289,0)"><path d="M257 449C165 449 37 374 37 209C37 98 119 -12 256 -12C355 -12 473 65 473 226C473 349 381 449 257 449ZM244 416C333 416 380 320 380 204C380 67 329 21 267 21C184 21 130 115 130 241C130 354 184 416 244 416Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.919,0)"><path d="M463 437C426 431 375 425 327 422C297 440 264 449 231 449H230C153 449 51 396 51 283C51 215 94 168 139 149C123 129 91 103 51 88C50 78 53 60 62 46C75 25 100 2 136 -9C112 -28 73 -59 53 -79C38 -94 29 -113 29 -135C30 -192 91 -257 203 -257C336 -257 452 -160 452 -59C452 39 371 59 309 59C275 59 240 58 203 58C158 58 140 77 140 96C140 110 157 129 170 138C186 135 205 133 221 133C306 133 396 185 396 293C396 328 384 360 366 381L423 378C439 387 459 413 468 429L463 437ZM219 418C277 418 314 362 314 284C314 205 275 166 231 165C176 165 137 221 137 299C137 376 177 418 219 418ZM241 -11C285 -11 314 -14 339 -24C367 -36 384 -61 384 -95C384 -157 335 -206 240 -206C166 -206 108 -165 108 -110C108 -82 128 -54 154 -32C172 -17 195 -11 241 -11Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.068,0)"><path d="M135 536C164 536 186 560 186 587C186 617 164 639 136 639C109 639 85 617 85 587C85 560 109 536 135 536ZM252 0V26C188 32 181 38 181 106V451C138 433 90 420 39 412V388C99 379 102 374 102 312V106C102 38 95 32 32 26V0H252Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,19.396,0)"><path d="M298 36L289 62C276 55 253 45 228 45C202 45 169 60 169 141V397H276C289 405 292 426 282 437H169V574L155 576L90 509V437H45L17 408L21 397H90V107C90 28 125 -12 188 -12C198 -12 213 -8 230 1L298 36Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.449,0)"><path d="M474 429L457 433C435 440 389 448 367 448C348 448 323 446 309 443C266 434 195 406 148 366C78 307 23 210 23 101C23 35 55 -12 92 -12C118 -12 146 1 196 35C247 70 311 130 346 173H348L281 -148C268 -211 256 -221 208 -229L191 -232L187 -257L433 -245L437 -219L411 -216C357 -210 350 -205 362 -140L427 207C447 315 461 381 474 429ZM387 387C379 337 363 262 355 236C318 180 201 57 142 57C126 57 112 81 112 128C112 205 150 321 220 376C244 395 280 403 312 403C345 403 370 396 387 387Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.832,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,34.33,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,38.763,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,43.906,0)"><path d="M536 404C536 423 520 448 491 448C445 448 398 404 308 283L286 338C255 416 242 448 217 448C182 448 138 402 92 341L111 321C149 368 169 378 178 378C188 378 198 363 214 320L254 212C185 117 138 65 107 65C98 65 85 69 82 75C79 82 73 86 65 86C44 86 23 60 23 39C23 7 44 -12 71 -12C119 -12 168 33 265 177L306 61C321 17 347 -12 373 -12C413 -12 465 33 507 96L491 119C459 84 432 60 413 60C395 60 378 92 358 148L321 250C341 279 369 310 389 332C417 363 439 382 456 382C466 382 475 376 481 368C486 361 492 358 496 358C513 358 536 381 536 404Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,51.173,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg> of the period 2010–2020 in Kenya, for both males (a) and females (b) at the ages of 40, 60, and 80.</div>

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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Figure 3

Figure 3: Poisson Incorporated Credibility Regression Modelling of Systematic Mortality Risk for Populations with Finite Data 