Poisson Incorporated Credibility Regression Modelling of Systematic Mortality Risk for Populations with Finite Data

Table 2

MAFE values of forecast errors for the duration 2000–2010 for ages 20–80 for the Lee–Carter model.

Fitting period	MAFE values
	MAFE	Ages 15–84	Lee–Carter	Random	Coefficients	Fixed	Coefficients
	Gender	LC	LC-Poisson	SEM	MEM	EEM	SEM	MEM	EEM
2010–2020	Male	0.5452	0.7450	0.4850	0.5354	0.43410	0.43508	0.4365	0.4315
	Female	0.3154	0.4125	0.3195	0.4329	0.2283	0.2545	0.2385	0.2225
2015–2010	Male	0.5768	0.7252	0.4496	0.5428	0.4456	0.4322	0.4345	0.4344
	Female	0.2745	0.3165	0.2598	0.2310	0.2234	0.22357	0.2145	0.21456
2018–2010	Male	0.5678	0.7322	0.4438	0.5325	0.4458	0.4014	0.4433	0.4328
	Female	0.3232	0.4415	0.2615	0.2982	0.21652	0.2267	0.2324	0.2265
Mean		0.4279 (7)	0.5022 (8)	0.3548 (4)	0.4086 (6)	0.3392 (2)	0.3359 (1)	0.3485 (5)	0.3469 (3)