Poisson Incorporated Credibility Regression Modelling of Systematic Mortality Risk for Populations with Finite Data

Table 4

MAFE values of forecast errors for the duration 2000–2010 for ages 20–80 for the CBD model.

Fitting period	MAFE values
	MAFE	Ages 20–80	Lee–Carter	Random	Coefficients	Fixed	Coefficients
	Gender	LC	LC-Poisson	SEM	MEM	EEM	SEM	MEM	EEM
2010–2020	Male	0.5285	0.7435	0.4765	0.5230	0.4349	0.4426	0.4214	0.4120
	Female	0.3127	0.4234	0.3142	0.4240	0.2234	0.2234	0.2398	0.2189
2015–2010	Male	0.5650	0.7105	0.4445	0.5187	0.4096	0.4186	0.4345	0.4453
	Female	0.2767	0.3156	0.2588	0.2292	0.2244	0.2243	0.2134	0.2090
2018–2010	Male	0.5888	0.7295	0.4348	0.5455	0.4301	0.4185	0.4143	0.4229
	Female	0.3098	0.4345	0.2326	0.3402	0.2456	0.2335	0.2243	0.2194
Mean		0.4279 (7)	0.5022 (8)	0.3548 (4)	0.4086 (6)	0.3392 (2)	0.3359 (1)	0.3485 (5)	0.3469 (3)