A Risk Analysis Method of Cable Fire in Utility Tunnel Based on a Bayesian Network

Table 3

Basic events of cable fire ignition occurrence.

Codename	Description	Priori probability	Posterior probability
X1	Joint corrosion	1.302 E − 04	1.845 E − 02
X2	Inadequate maintenance management	5.948 E − 04	8.430 E − 02
X3	Insufficient technical training	8.358 E − 04	1.185 E − 01
X4	Poor workmanship	1.848 E − 03	1.848 E − 03
X5	Long-term overload	1.945 E − 04	2.756 E − 02
X6	Ventilation failure	1.116 E − 03	1.158 E − 03
X7	Small cable spacing	2.762 E − 02	2.766 E − 02
X8	Unreasonable cable compartment design	9.766 E − 03	9.808 E − 03
X9	Breaker failure	9.600 E − 04	1.361 E − 01
X10	Overvoltage	1.876 E − 04	2.659 E − 02
X11	Stray current	3.153 E − 04	4.469 E − 02
X12	Insulation layer aging	1.938 E − 04	2.757 E − 02
X13	Cables overlapping	1.222 E − 04	1.732 E − 02
X14	Humid environment	3.121 E − 04	4.423 E − 02
X15	Insufficient insulation thickness	1.948E-04	2.761 E − 02
X16	Damaged installation	8.954 E − 04	1.269 E − 01
X17	Animal destruction	1.008 E − 04	1.429 E − 02
X18	Low dielectric strength	2.703 E − 04	3.831 E − 02
X19	Combustibles entering	1.208 E − 04	1.179 E − 01
X20	Unblocked holes	2.130 E − 04	2.130 E − 05
X21	Unpainted fireproof coating	1.224 E − 03	1.224 E − 03
X22	Unclosed fire door	1.938 E − 04	1.938 E − 04
X23	Hot work near cables	9.380 E − 04	1.329 E − 01