Research Article
A Risk Analysis Method of Cable Fire in Utility Tunnel Based on a Bayesian Network
Table 5
The changed probabilities of critical basic events.
| | Critical basic events code | Years | | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| | X1 | 1.302 × 10−4 | 2.302 × 10−4 | 2.302 × 10−4 | 2.302 × 10−4 | 2.302 × 10−4 | | X2 | 5.948 × 10−4 | 6.947 × 10−4 | 7.946 × 10−4 | 8.945 × 10−4 | 8.945 × 10−4 | | X3 | 8.358 × 10−4 | 9.357 × 10−4 | 1.036 × 10−3 | 1.135 × 10−3 | 1.135 × 10−3 | | X5 | 2.945 × 10−4 | 3.944 × 10−4 | 3.944 × 10−4 | 5.943 × 10−4 | 5.943 × 10−4 | | X9 | 9.600 × 10−4 | 9.600 × 10−4 | 9.600 × 10−4 | 9.600 × 10−4 | 9.600 × 10−4 | | X10 | 1.876 × 10−4 | 1.876 × 10−4 | 1.876 × 10−4 | 1.876 × 10−4 | 1.876 × 10−4 | | X11 | 3.153 × 10−4 | 3.153 × 10−4 | 3.153 × 10−4 | 3.153 × 10−4 | 3.153 × 10−4 | | X12 | 2.938 × 10−4 | 3.937 × 10−4 | 3.937 × 10−4 | 5.936 × 10−4 | 6.935 × 10−4 | | X13 | 2.222 × 10−4 | 2.222 × 10−4 | 2.222 × 10−4 | 5.220 × 10−4 | 5.220 × 10−4 | | X14 | 4.121 × 10−4 | 4.121 × 10−4 | 4.121 × 10−4 | 6.119 × 10−4 | 6.119 × 10−4 | | X15 | 1.948 × 10−4 | 2.948 × 10−4 | 2.948 × 10−4 | 2.948 × 10−4 | 2.948 × 10−4 | | X16 | 8.954 × 10−4 | 8.954 × 10−4 | 8.954 × 10−4 | 8.954 × 10−4 | 8.954 × 10−4 | | X17 | 1.008 × 10−4 | 1.008 × 10−4 | 1.008 × 10−4 | 2.008 × 10−4 | 2.008 × 10−4 | | X18 | 2.703 × 10−4 | 2.703 × 10−4 | 2.703 × 10−4 | 2.703 × 10−4 | 2.703 × 10−4 | | X19 | 1.208 × 10−4 | 1.208 × 10−4 | 1.208 × 10−4 | 2.208 × 10−4 | 2.208 × 10−4 | | X23 | 1.038 × 10−3 | 1.038 × 10−3 | 1.038 × 10−3 | 1.138 × 10−3 | 1.138 × 10−3 |
| | Critical basic events code | Years | | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
| | X1 | 3.301 × 10−4 | 3.301 × 10−4 | 4.301 × 10−4 | 6.299 × 10−4 | 6.299 × 10−4 | | X2 | 9.944 × 10−4 | 9.944 × 10−4 | 1.094 × 10−3 | 1.294 × 10−3 | 1.294 × 10−3 | | X3 | 1.235 × 10−3 | 1.235 × 10−3 | 1.335 × 10−3 | 1.535 × 10−3 | 1.535 × 10−3 | | X5 | 7.940 × 10−4 | 9.937 × 10−4 | 1.193 × 10−3 | 1.692 × 10−3 | 1.792×10 | | X9 | 9.600 × 10−4 | 9.600 × 10−4 | 1.060 × 10−3 | 1.160 × 10−3 | 1.260 × 10−3 | | X10 | 1.876 × 10−4 | 1.876 × 10−4 | 2.876 × 10−4 | 3.875 × 10−4 | 3.875 × 10−4 | | X11 | 3.153 × 10−4 | 3.153 × 10−4 | 4.153 × 10−4 | 5.152 × 10−4 | 5.152 × 10−4 | | X12 | 6.935 × 10−4 | 8.932 × 10−4 | 1.093 × 10−3 | 1.392 × 10−3 | 1.492 × 10−3 | | X13 | 5.220 × 10−4 | 6.219 × 10−4 | 8.216 × 10−4 | 1.121 × 10−3 | 1.121 × 10−3 | | X14 | 6.119 × 10−4 | 7.118 × 10−4 | 9.116 × 10−4 | 1.211 × 10−3 | 1.211 × 10−3 | | X15 | 2.948 × 10−4 | 2.948 × 10−4 | 3.947 × 10−4 | 4.947 × 10−4 | 4.947 × 10−4 | | X16 | 8.954 × 10−4 | 8.954 × 10−4 | 9.953 × 10−4 | 1.095 × 10−3 | 1.195 × 10−3 | | X17 | 2.008 × 10−4 | 2.008 × 10−4 | 3.007 × 10−4 | 4.007 × 10−4 | 5.006 × 10−4 | | X18 | 2.703 × 10−4 | 2.703 × 10−4 | 3.703 × 10−4 | 4.702 × 10−4 | 4.702 × 10−4 | | X19 | 2.208 × 10−4 | 2.208 × 10−4 | 2.208 × 10−4 | 2.208 × 10−4 | 2.208 × 10−4 | | X23 | 1.138 × 10−3 | 1.138 × 10−3 | 1.138 × 10−3 | 1.138 × 10−3 | 1.138 × 10−3 |
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