Research Article
A Risk Analysis Method of Cable Fire in Utility Tunnel Based on a Bayesian Network
Table 7
The posterior probabilities of cable compartment safe state and consequences.
| | Consequences of the accident | Years | | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| | PhaseI | 4.870 × 10−3 | 5.294 × 10−3 | 5.435 × 10−3 | 6.422 × 10−3 | 6.492 × 10−3 | | PhaseII | 1.899 × 10−3 | 2.064 × 10−3 | 2.119 × 10−3 | 2.504 × 10−3 | 2.532 × 10−3 | | PhaseIII | 1.699 × 10−3 | 1.846 × 10−3 | 1.896 × 10−3 | 2.240 × 10−3 | 2.264 × 10−3 | | S0 | 9.932 × 10−1 | 9.926 × 10−1 | 9.924 × 10−1 | 9.910 × 10−1 | 9.909 × 10−1 |
| | Consequences of the accident | Years | | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
| | PhaseI | 6.845 × 10−3 | 7.267 × 10−3 | 8.533 × 10−3 | 1.043 × 10−2 | 1.078 × 10−2 | | PhaseII | 2.669 × 10−3 | 2.834 × 10−3 | 3.327 × 10−3 | 4.066 × 10−3 | 4.203 × 10−3 | | PhaseIII | 2.387 × 10−3 | 2.535 × 10−3 | 2.976 × 10−3 | 3.637 × 10−3 | 3.759 × 10−3 | | S0 | 9.904 × 10−1 | 9.898 × 10−1 | 9.880 × 10−1 | 9.853 × 10−1 | 9.848 × 10−1 |
|
|
