Research Article

A Risk Assessment Framework of Photovoltaic Poverty Alleviation Projects under EPC Mode in China

Table 2

Full details of the risk indicator system.

First levelSecond levelDescriptionReferences

Policy risksUnstable policyPhotovoltaic power generation is a high policy-dependent project. Policies such as photovoltaic subsidies and the price of photovoltaic electricity for poverty alleviation will affect the income and cash flow of the project, so national policy changes are a key risk factor[6, 8, 14, 24]
Land acquisitionThe location of the PPAP plant may conflict with agricultural and forestry land due to higher requirements for sunlight and grid facilities. The land acquisition may be hindered by environmental assessments, high land acquisition costs, or the lack of a government role[25, 26]
Imperfect lawsThe promotion of photovoltaic poverty alleviation is not long, and the legal framework at the national level is still imperfect. Laws are in requisition of perfection to regulate PPAP effectively
Imperfect supervisionInadequate supervision of projects may lead to a lack of effective performance monitoring and evaluation. Meanwhile, poorly supervised poor household record-keeping may allow false poor households to benefit from the PPAP
Improper income distributionThe proceeds of PPAP are not fully owned by poor households. Improper income distribution may lead to insecurity of income for poor households or trigger investor dissatisfaction, making it difficult to achieve poverty alleviation goals[27]

Economic risksDeclining feed-in tariffThe feed-in tariff is directly related to the income of PPAP and is the direct influence factor on whether the project can be profitable or not. With the development of technology, there is a trend of decreasing price subsidies for clean energy, which will affect the revenue of the project and the incentive of the investors[28]
Interest rate changeIn the procedure of project financing and construction operation, the change in interest rate will affect the cost and benefit of project funds and then produce the risk of loss of project profits[24, 25]
Tax changesChanges in taxes and tax rates will result in changes in project costs and benefits. The tax rate will affect the cash flow throughout the life cycle of the project, as well as the profitability and solvency of the project[29]
Capital riskPPAPs may have the problem of aging equipment in operation. Moreover, village-level PV poverty alleviation projects are small in scale, with scattered construction sites and high operation and maintenance costs. In addition, the large initial investment due to the high equipment cost of PV projects can bring risks to the financial aspects of the projects[3032]

Technical risksTechnical imperfectionThere is still room for technological development of photovoltaic power generation equipment. Obviously, the imperfection of the technology will affect the quality of power and hinder the implementation and profitability of the project. The conversion rate of photovoltaic cells still needs to be improved[33, 34]
Grid-connected riskAs the output of PV modules is affected by the environment during actual operation, the output power is unstable, intermittent, and periodic, which will have an impact on the power grid and may also affect the profitability of PV power projects[35]
Lacking uniform standardDue to the lack of access standards for photovoltaic equipment for poverty alleviation, and varying technical paths and production processes, the quality of photovoltaic equipment varies. Low-quality PV equipment may meet the relevant technical acceptance standards and power generation efficiency requirements in a short period of time, but the probability of failure in the middle and later stages increases greatly, causing difficulties in operation and maintenance[36]
Equipment management riskBecause of the lack of operation and maintenance capabilities for PV equipment, users may not be able to maintain PV power plants well. In addition, the decentralized nature of the construction of pro-poor PV plants makes it difficult for specialized O&M teams to perform large-scale maintenance[37]
Poor grid infrastructureIn some areas, poor and unstable quality of rural power grids is very common, which adversely affects the utilization of PV equipment. When PV power plants are connected to the grid, voltage and other parameters are the keys to stable operation, and it is difficult to meet the requirements of grid connection[38]

Environment risksInconvenient trafficMost of the poverty-stricken areas are remote geographically and accompanied by inconveniency in transportation and correspondence, which brings barriers to the construction of photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects. Poor traffic will increase the difficulty and cost of equipment transportation during construction. The rugged terrain will make the construction difficult and the construction sites scattered, which is not conducive to centralized management[39]
Irradiation resourceThis indicator is related to the stability of solar radiation, solar radiation intensity, and annual total solar radiation, which will affect the power generation and power stability of photovoltaic projects[40, 41]
Public acceptanceSome poor households lack knowledge or have misunderstandings about PV. In addition, poor households may need to apply for loans for start-up capital, which can be overwhelming for them[42]
Uncontrollable riskThis risk is risen from events unforeseen, unprotected, unavoidable, and uncontrollable by the parties to the contract occurred, such as natural disasters[43]

Pattern risksLacking qualificationsPoor qualification of contractors and supervisors will lead to poor quality of PPAP and bring risks to the project. The quality and schedule of the project may also be affected during construction, which may ultimately lead to the failure of the PPAP[6]
Unqualified acceptanceThe lack of third-party acceptance agencies will make it difficult to ensure the reliability of the project when testing and accepting the quality of photovoltaic components, inverters, and other equipment
Owner’s dereliction of dutyThis risk refers to the phenomenon that the project does not proceed as planned or the cost increases due to the owner’s own reasons, such as the owner not making progress payments on time, refusing to sign for equipment and materials without valid reasons, and delaying the construction schedule due to the owner’s request for design changes
Lacking communicationThe construction of PV poverty alleviation projects is done by multiple participants, so the lack of communication among project participants can affect the progress and quality of the project