Network Effects and Characteristics of Cross-Industrial Tail Risk Spillover in China

<div>PSC in the process of risk accumulation and risk mitigation. (a) PSC of upside <span class="nowrap"><svg height="16.8032pt" id="M43" style="vertical-align:-4.2371pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -12.5661 50.8836 16.8032" width="50.8836pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M600 0V24L339 665L311 657L43 24V0H600ZM497 50H107L303 539L497 50Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,8.327,0)"><path d="M614 175C564 76 510 21 408 21C256 21 146 149 146 336C146 488 235 629 402 629C510 629 570 586 597 480L626 488C620 541 614 582 606 638C578 643 510 665 429 665C206 665 44 527 44 316C44 157 153 -15 402 -15C474 -15 558 5 586 11C604 45 629 119 643 165L614 175Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,17.168,0)"><path d="M257 449C165 449 37 374 37 209C37 98 119 -12 256 -12C355 -12 473 65 473 226C473 349 381 449 257 449ZM244 416C333 416 380 320 380 204C380 67 329 21 267 21C184 21 130 115 130 241C130 354 184 416 244 416Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.798,0)"><path d="M517 162C503 123 484 88 467 68C445 42 417 34 341 34C291 34 256 34 237 47C219 59 213 81 213 128V317H308C395 317 402 311 415 240H444V431H415C403 364 398 356 307 356H213V584C213 613 215 616 246 616H322C394 616 421 609 435 587C448 566 458 544 467 502L496 506C493 557 488 625 488 650H42V622C120 616 128 612 128 523V125C128 43 120 35 29 28V0H511C520 31 540 125 546 158L517 162Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.182,0)"><path d="M409 504C401 567 396 607 392 642C354 654 312 665 266 665C137 665 60 583 60 487C60 374 161 325 225 290C300 250 355 215 355 141C355 68 311 21 235 21C131 21 86 122 71 183L41 176C48 128 61 42 68 21C78 16 93 8 118 0C142 -7 175 -15 216 -15C349 -15 438 69 438 174C438 287 344 333 265 374C186 414 138 449 138 522C138 576 172 631 249 631C336 631 363 562 380 499L409 504Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,37.452,-6.049)"><path d="M250 606C250 634 233 656 203 656C168 656 146 618 146 593C146 564 169 545 192 545C227 545 250 573 250 606ZM227 95L212 119C187 98 152 71 135 71C129 71 128 78 134 102L207 373C219 418 217 451 194 451C165 451 92 411 30 351L44 326C77 353 106 371 114 371C124 371 121 357 117 341L55 97C32 5 46 -12 70 -12C108 -12 191 51 227 95Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,40,-6.049)"><path d="M167 -163V704H102V-163H167Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,42.448,-6.049)"><path d="M870 650H622L613 619C694 615 708 606 708 559C708 531 702 477 686 396L636 136H633L281 650H127L120 619C180 616 198 611 212 592C227 572 232 558 220 503L166 254C148 169 139 131 126 89C112 43 85 35 33 32L24 0H280L286 32C208 37 189 44 189 93C189 124 198 179 212 250L267 526H271L622 -8H655L732 396C747 477 762 532 770 556C785 600 798 616 862 619L870 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,37.452,4.187)"><path d="M655 676H628C608 656 600 650 571 650H156C118 650 114 651 102 676H77C63 615 45 548 24 485L60 486C81 531 97 562 114 580C134 603 148 611 252 611H308L217 127C201 41 196 38 105 32L98 0H384L393 32C300 38 288 41 304 127L393 611H466C553 611 571 604 582 580C592 559 597 530 595 485L630 489C636 548 645 624 655 676Z"></path></g></svg>.</span> (b) PSC of upside <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.997pt" id="M44" style="vertical-align:-3.2911pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.7059 11.8445 12.997" width="11.8445pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M425 682C425 693 422 699 407 699C369 699 308 677 260 646C213 651 191 674 191 701C191 715 195 726 200 734L183 740C153 730 118 709 118 681C118 644 163 619 218 615C168 582 115 534 115 463C115 418 147 382 180 369C102 329 23 261 23 163C23 74 74 38 158 14C183 7 201 2 221 -2C279 -15 290 -33 290 -58C290 -94 251 -145 230 -169L252 -189C280 -171 367 -103 367 -25C367 20 333 51 266 68C245 73 218 80 191 89C139 106 107 135 107 192C107 261 161 329 221 355C248 350 281 347 314 347C330 347 370 388 370 406C370 418 366 422 352 422C321 422 280 413 255 407C218 413 192 448 192 493C192 544 229 588 266 610C309 610 354 615 376 623C397 631 425 651 425 682Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.499,3.132)"><path d="M250 606C250 634 233 656 203 656C168 656 146 618 146 593C146 564 169 545 192 545C227 545 250 573 250 606ZM227 95L212 119C187 98 152 71 135 71C129 71 128 78 134 102L207 373C219 418 217 451 194 451C165 451 92 411 30 351L44 326C77 353 106 371 114 371C124 371 121 357 117 341L55 97C32 5 46 -12 70 -12C108 -12 191 51 227 95Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.047,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg>.</span> (c) Absolute value of upside difference. (d) PSC of downside <span class="nowrap"><svg height="16.8032pt" id="M45" style="vertical-align:-4.2371pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -12.5661 50.8836 16.8032" width="50.8836pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M600 0V24L339 665L311 657L43 24V0H600ZM497 50H107L303 539L497 50Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,8.327,0)"><path d="M614 175C564 76 510 21 408 21C256 21 146 149 146 336C146 488 235 629 402 629C510 629 570 586 597 480L626 488C620 541 614 582 606 638C578 643 510 665 429 665C206 665 44 527 44 316C44 157 153 -15 402 -15C474 -15 558 5 586 11C604 45 629 119 643 165L614 175Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,17.168,0)"><path d="M257 449C165 449 37 374 37 209C37 98 119 -12 256 -12C355 -12 473 65 473 226C473 349 381 449 257 449ZM244 416C333 416 380 320 380 204C380 67 329 21 267 21C184 21 130 115 130 241C130 354 184 416 244 416Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.798,0)"><path d="M517 162C503 123 484 88 467 68C445 42 417 34 341 34C291 34 256 34 237 47C219 59 213 81 213 128V317H308C395 317 402 311 415 240H444V431H415C403 364 398 356 307 356H213V584C213 613 215 616 246 616H322C394 616 421 609 435 587C448 566 458 544 467 502L496 506C493 557 488 625 488 650H42V622C120 616 128 612 128 523V125C128 43 120 35 29 28V0H511C520 31 540 125 546 158L517 162Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.182,0)"><path d="M409 504C401 567 396 607 392 642C354 654 312 665 266 665C137 665 60 583 60 487C60 374 161 325 225 290C300 250 355 215 355 141C355 68 311 21 235 21C131 21 86 122 71 183L41 176C48 128 61 42 68 21C78 16 93 8 118 0C142 -7 175 -15 216 -15C349 -15 438 69 438 174C438 287 344 333 265 374C186 414 138 449 138 522C138 576 172 631 249 631C336 631 363 562 380 499L409 504Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,37.452,-6.049)"><path d="M250 606C250 634 233 656 203 656C168 656 146 618 146 593C146 564 169 545 192 545C227 545 250 573 250 606ZM227 95L212 119C187 98 152 71 135 71C129 71 128 78 134 102L207 373C219 418 217 451 194 451C165 451 92 411 30 351L44 326C77 353 106 371 114 371C124 371 121 357 117 341L55 97C32 5 46 -12 70 -12C108 -12 191 51 227 95Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,40,-6.049)"><path d="M167 -163V704H102V-163H167Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,42.448,-6.049)"><path d="M870 650H622L613 619C694 615 708 606 708 559C708 531 702 477 686 396L636 136H633L281 650H127L120 619C180 616 198 611 212 592C227 572 232 558 220 503L166 254C148 169 139 131 126 89C112 43 85 35 33 32L24 0H280L286 32C208 37 189 44 189 93C189 124 198 179 212 250L267 526H271L622 -8H655L732 396C747 477 762 532 770 556C785 600 798 616 862 619L870 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,37.452,4.187)"><path d="M655 676H628C608 656 600 650 571 650H156C118 650 114 651 102 676H77C63 615 45 548 24 485L60 486C81 531 97 562 114 580C134 603 148 611 252 611H308L217 127C201 41 196 38 105 32L98 0H384L393 32C300 38 288 41 304 127L393 611H466C553 611 571 604 582 580C592 559 597 530 595 485L630 489C636 548 645 624 655 676Z"></path></g></svg>.</span> (e) PSC of upside <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.997pt" id="M46" style="vertical-align:-3.2911pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.7059 11.8445 12.997" width="11.8445pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M425 682C425 693 422 699 407 699C369 699 308 677 260 646C213 651 191 674 191 701C191 715 195 726 200 734L183 740C153 730 118 709 118 681C118 644 163 619 218 615C168 582 115 534 115 463C115 418 147 382 180 369C102 329 23 261 23 163C23 74 74 38 158 14C183 7 201 2 221 -2C279 -15 290 -33 290 -58C290 -94 251 -145 230 -169L252 -189C280 -171 367 -103 367 -25C367 20 333 51 266 68C245 73 218 80 191 89C139 106 107 135 107 192C107 261 161 329 221 355C248 350 281 347 314 347C330 347 370 388 370 406C370 418 366 422 352 422C321 422 280 413 255 407C218 413 192 448 192 493C192 544 229 588 266 610C309 610 354 615 376 623C397 631 425 651 425 682Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.499,3.132)"><path d="M250 606C250 634 233 656 203 656C168 656 146 618 146 593C146 564 169 545 192 545C227 545 250 573 250 606ZM227 95L212 119C187 98 152 71 135 71C129 71 128 78 134 102L207 373C219 418 217 451 194 451C165 451 92 411 30 351L44 326C77 353 106 371 114 371C124 371 121 357 117 341L55 97C32 5 46 -12 70 -12C108 -12 191 51 227 95Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.047,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg>.</span> (f) Absolute value of downside difference.</div>

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

fig2

Figure 2

Figure 2: Network Effects and Characteristics of Cross-Industrial Tail Risk Spillover in China 