Combined Prediction of Clean Energy Consumption in China Based on the Nonlinear Programming Model

Table 2

Fitting and prediction results of total clean energy consumption in China (10,000 tons of standard coal).

year	The actual value	GM(1,1)		ARIMA		Combined model
		Predictive value	The relative error (%)	Predictive value	The relative error (%)	Predictive value	The relative error (%)
2000	13961.58
2001	16799.08	17183.32	2.29
2002	17805.58	19164.9	7.63
2003	19117.05	21375.01	11.81	19476.28	1.88	20186.60	5.59
2004	22797.82	23839.98	4.57	22262.80	2.35	22852.82	0.24
2005	25614.17	26589.22	3.81	24081.68	5.98	25019.75	2.32
2006	28933.17	29655.49	2.50	27701.50	4.26	28432.49	1.73
2007	32701.41	33075.38	1.14	31883.47	2.50	32329.36	1.14
2008	37832.09	36889.64	2.49	36577.89	3.32	36694.52	3.01
2009	40335.12	41143.77	2.00	40810.65	1.18	40935.27	1.49
2010	48326.83	45888.48	5.05	48231.24	0.20	47354.81	2.01
2011	50315.59	51180.36	1.72	51318.56	1.99	51266.86	1.89
2012	58310.01	57082.5	2.11	60423.97	3.63	59173.93	1.48
2013	64621.52	63665.27	1.48	64725.56	0.16	64328.91	0.45
2014	72387.02	71007.17	1.91	70826.80	2.16	70894.28	2.06
2015	77382.9	79195.75	2.34	75912.22	1.90	77140.59	0.31
2016	84984.71	88328.63	3.93	83860.28	1.32	85531.89	0.64
		RMSE	1517.00	RMSE	1098.64	RMSE	793.35
		MAPE	3.55	MAPE	2.34	MAPE	1.74
2017	93294.03	98514.72	7.15	90899.30	2.57	93748.23	1.46
2018	102544	109875.48	7.76	97907.14	4.52	102384.49	1.08
2019	113724	122546.36	5.60	105028.93	7.65	111582.20	0.37
		RMSE	7276.45	RMSE	5854.90	RMSE	1267.42
		MAPE	6.83	MAPE	4.91	MAPE	0.842