Health Transition Probability and Long-Term Care Cost Estimation
Table 3
Three-year transition matrices by gender and state.
Age
State
Men
Women
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
65–70
1
0.675
0.240
0.024
0.061
0.533
0.377
0.050
0.040
2
0.387
0.420
0.100
0.093
0.377
0.459
0.106
0.058
3
0.201
0.400
0.249
0.150
0.192
0.423
0.269
0.115
70–75
1
0.528
0.282
0.071
0.119
0.523
0.275
0.145
0.057
2
0.395
0.354
0.111
0.140
0.207
0.579
0.119
0.095
3
0.236
0.255
0.146
0.364
0.184
0.143
0.429
0.245
75–80
1
0.320
0.390
0.097
0.193
0.301
0.425
0.156
0.119
2
0.197
0.412
0.186
0.205
0.165
0.378
0.270
0.186
3
0.063
0.281
0.219
0.438
0.065
0.290
0.371
0.274
80–85
1
0.320
0.314
0.144
0.222
0.190
0.436
0.222
0.152
2
0.112
0.378
0.201
0.310
0.050
0.348
0.354
0.248
3
0.052
0.280
0.264
0.404
0.019
0.253
0.374
0.354
85–90
1
0.076
0.485
0.195
0.245
0.046
0.415
0.305
0.234
2
0.036
0.319
0.210
0.434
0.030
0.305
0.373
0.292
3
0.018
0.168
0.258
0.556
0.012
0.120
0.381
0.488
90–95
1
0.034
0.327
0.236
0.404
0.039
0.192
0.308
0.462
2
0.015
0.198
0.259
0.528
0.005
0.212
0.423
0.360
3
0.010
0.091
0.238
0.661
0.006
0.076
0.330
0.588
95+
1
0.083
0.250
0.250
0.417
0.016
0.094
0.401
0.490
2
0.019
0.181
0.245
0.556
0.011
0.158
0.308
0.523
3
0.003
0.054
0.192
0.750
0.001
0.027
0.248
0.723
Note: 1. The sum of each row is not strictly equal to 1 due to rounding off; 2. State 4 being an absorption state, the probabilities of transition to states 1, 2, 3, and 4 are 0, 0, 0, and 1, respectively, and to simplify the table, they are not listed but cannot be omitted in subsequent matrices calculations.
