Health Transition Probability and Long-Term Care Cost Estimation
Table 4
One-year state transition matrices by gender and state.
Age
State
Men
Women
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
65–70
1
0.847
0.133
0.001
0.019
0.743
0.237
0.008
0.012
2
0.211
0.677
0.080
0.033
0.237
0.664
0.079
0.019
3
0.039
0.311
0.587
0.063
0.028
0.318
0.604
0.050
70–75
1
0.747
0.187
0.030
0.037
0.779
0.137
0.073
0.011
2
0.261
0.599
0.104
0.036
0.101
0.813
0.056
0.031
3
0.023
0.237
0.544
0.196
0.027
0.061
0.809
0.103
75–80
1
0.609
0.318
0.001
0.073
0.588
0.378
0.005
0.029
2
0.164
0.618
0.173
0.046
0.147
0.574
0.218
0.061
3
0.004
0.269
0.504
0.223
0.001
0.235
0.650
0.114
80–85
1
0.656
0.215
0.066
0.063
0.538
0.422
0.003
0.037
2
0.081
0.648
0.161
0.110
0.048
0.587
0.293
0.072
3
0.015
0.231
0.579
0.176
0.001
0.209
0.638
0.152
85–90
1
0.332
0.572
0.015
0.080
0.232
0.683
0.012
0.073
2
0.045
0.610
0.183
0.163
0.043
0.599
0.285
0.073
3
0.012
0.137
0.595
0.256
0.008
0.086
0.691
0.215
90–95
1
0.266
0.630
0.001
0.103
0.330
0.280
0.187
0.204
2
0.019
0.523
0.273
0.185
0.000
0.552
0.378
0.070
3
0.013
0.084
0.582
0.321
0.007
0.065
0.655
0.272
95+
1
0.413
0.347
0.153
0.088
0.224
0.161
0.579
0.035
2
0.026
0.520
0.271
0.182
0.014
0.519
0.296
0.172
3
0.001
0.061
0.548
0.390
0.000
0.028
0.616
0.356
Note: 1. The sum of each row is not strictly equal to 1 due to rounding off; 2. State 4 being an absorption state, the probability of transition to states 1, 2, 3, and 4 are 0, 0, 0, and 1, respectively, and to simplify the table, they are not be listed but cannot be omitted in subsequent matrices calculations.
