Novel Probabilistic Approach for Quantification of Cost-Overruns Risk and Determination of Primary Causes

Figure 4

Schematic representation of risk analysis. In this diagram, our approach executes cost-overruns detection procedures to identify potential cost overruns based on schedule, progress, and current cost. Cost-deviation detection is implemented to estimate the occurrence of cost variances, and then risk reasoning techniques are applied to determine the primary causal factors if there is an exception.